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Monday, 3 February 2014

Barley Price Surge Inevitable Amidst Strong Fundamental Support

Prices have been rising since January 2006 due to high exports. Hanish Kumar Sinha, head, trade and commodity intelligence group, National Collateral Management Services, says world barley stocks are likely to end 2012-13 at a five-year low of 22.5 MT, with a sharp 14% drop in inventory in major exporting countries to 12.5 MT, the lowest in 17 years. In 2013, barley prices rose 1.72% on the NCDEX and were at Rs 1,659 a quintal on December 31 as against Rs 1,573 a quintal on January 1.

India's production in 2012-13 is estimated at 1.74 MT, marginally higher than the 1.62 MT in the preceding year, owing to good rains in the kharif season and improving yields due to high MSP.

Over 91.71% production was contributed by Rajasthan (48.75%), Uttar Pradesh (24.96%), Haryana (9.45%) and Madhya Pradesh (8.54%). "The domestic consumption is estimated at 1.5-1.75 MT. India is the 14th -largest consumer, with the leaders being European Union (37.91%) and China (9.57%)," says Sinha.

Barley is sown in October-December and is dependent upon a good monsoon. According to market experts, this year, good rainfall in major producing regions will provide the required soil moisture. The upcoming season is likely to see production of 1.7-1.8 MT.

Sinha of National Collateral says barley is expected to continue trading on the higher side due to lower production in the European Union. However, spot prices are expected to rise on the back of high export demand and get support at Rs 1,172 per quintal. It has a good possibility of testing Rs 1,740 in 2014 on the higher side.


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