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Friday, 5 September 2014

Indian Agriculture Rescued by Late revival of Monsoon

Recent Weather Development

The southwest monsoon has been vigorous over Lakshadweep on 22nd; over Arunachal Pradesh & Kerala on 23rd; over Rayalaseema on 25th, over Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim on 26th and over North Interior Karnataka on 22nd & 26th. 

A well-marked low pressure area lies over west-central & adjoining northwest Bay of Bengal off north Andhra Pradesh- south Odisha coasts. It is likely to move inland across north Andhra Pradesh and Maharashtra towards Gujarat. The monsoon trough at mean sea level passes through Jaisalmer, Kota, Narsingpur, Jagdalpur, centre of well-marked low pressure area and thence east-southeastwards to east-central Bay of Bengal. A western disturbance as an upper air cyclonic circulation lies over north Pakistan & adjoining Jammu & Kashmir extending upto mid tropospheric level.

The axis of monsoon trough continued to run close to foothills of Himalayas on 21st. It shifted slightly southwards and passed through Ferozepur, Ambala, Meerut, Fursatganj, Bhagalpur, Balurghat and thence eastwards to Nagaland on 22nd; it again ran close to the foothills of the Himalayas on 23rd & 24th. On 25th, it shifted southwards and passed through Ferozepur, Ambala, Bareilly, Bahraich, Ballia, Purnea and thence eastwards to Manipur across Bangladesh. On 26th, its western end ran close to foothills of Himalayas and eastern end passed through Behraich, Ballia, Gaya, Bankura, Digha and thence southeastwards to north Bay of Bengal. On 27th, its western end continued to run close to foothills of Himalayas and eastern end passed through Gonda, Mirzapur, Daltonganj, Bhubaneswar and thence centre of low pressure area over west-central & adjoining northwest Bay of Bengal off north Andhra Pradesh- south Odisha coasts.

Last week’s upper air cyclonic circulation over South Interior Karnataka & neighbourhood laid over Marathawada & neighbourhood extended between 0.9 & 3.1 km above mean sea level on 21st, persisted over the same region and extended upto 1.5 km above mean sea level on 22nd and became less marked thereafter. 

Last week’s east­ west shear zone along Latitude 10.0°N across south peninsula persisted between 2.1 & 4.5 km above mean sea level with an embedded upper air cyclonic circulation over Lakshadweep-Comorin area on 21st. It became less marked on 22nd. 

Last week’s upper air cyclonic circulation over Sub­Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim in lower levels became less marked on 21st. Last week’s trough from East Madhya Pradesh to Kerala across interior Karnataka extending upto 0.9 km above mean sea level became less marked on 21st. A trough in the middle & Upper tropospheric westerlies ran roughly along Long. 62.0°E to the north of Lat. 35.0 on 21st, and was seen as an upper air cyclonic circulation over Afghanistan & neighbourhood extending upto mid tropospheric levels on 22nd; over north Pakistan and adjoining Jammu & Kashmir on 23rd & 24th, over eastern parts of Jammu & Kashmir on 25th and moved away east-northeastwards thereafter. 

Monsoon trough was mainly close to foothills of Himalayas; however its eastern end oscillated southwards towards the end of the week. South Peninsula and East & northeast India received above normal rainfall during the week. All the sub-divisions of South Peninsula received normal to excess rainfall during the week. Out of 36 meteorological subdivisions, the rainfall has been excess over 10, normal over 05, deficient over 09, scanty and no rainfall over 1 sub-division (Haryana, Chandigarh & Delhi). In area-wise distribution, 32% area of the country received excess/normal rainfall, 25% received deficient rainfall, 42% area received scanty and 1% area where no rainfall has occurred. Meteorological sub-division-wise rainfall for the week is given in adjascent table.

For the country as a whole, cumulative rainfall during this year’s monsoon has so far upto 27 August been 18% below the LPA. Cumulative Meteorological sub-division-wise seasonal rainfall is given in the adjacent table. 

Data released by the Union Ministry of Agriculture on 29th August 2014 shows that sowing of Kharif crops had shown a steady increase during the week ended August 29 to touch 966.25 lakh hectares (ha) as compared to 998.01 ha at this time of the season last year. Quoting reports received from the states, an official statement said here that rice had so far been sown in 350.02 lakh ha (as compared to 349.76 lakh ha at this time last year, pulses in 95.40 lakh ha (100.64 lakh ha), coarse cereals in 170.83 lakh ha(190.64 lakh ha), oilseeds in 172.21 lakh ha (186.70 lakh ha), sugarcane in 47.17 lakh ha (50.32 lakh ha), cotton in 122.51 lakh ha (111.65 lakh ha) and jute & mesta in 8.11 lakh ha (8.31 lakh ha).

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