With the kahrif season already in progress with about 2-3 weeks delay sowing, NBHC is releasing its first Kharif crop estimate for the year 2014-15. As per our study and market feedback on sowing crop progress, the total Kharif cereals’ production is expected to decline marginally by 1.69 per cent over last year to 121.17 million tonnes. The marginal drop in the production estimate is on account of the recent delay in the monsoon and expectation of lower yield in major producing areas of Bengal, Uttar Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Bihar. Rice is expected to show a marginal increase in area by 1.18 per cent but a dip of 2.79 per cent in production over last year owing to expected decline in yield. In Maize, which is the other major cereal crop, the area is expected to decline by 8.54 per cent and the production is expected to decline by 4.45 per cent to 7.53 million hectare and 16.73 million tonnes respectively. As the lack of rains and dry weather has been prolonged in major cereal producing areas, farmers are likely to shift to minor cereals as ragi, jowar and bajra (as reported industry sources). Maximum improvement is expected in Jowar whose area and production are expected to expand by 18.55 per cent 31.87 per cent to 2.57 million hectares and 2.94 million tonnes respectively.
In the pulses sector, the revival of monsoon rains in the pulses growing regions has helped in revival of the urad and other kharif pulses, though the overall yield of Tur is likely to be affected marginally. We expect the area under Tur to improve marginally by 1.75 per cent over last year but the production is likely to decline by 11.66 per cent. Overall, the total Kharif pulses production is likely to improve marginally 2.98 per cent over last year.
The oil seed sector is likely to see a decline of production by 3.36 per cent. Maximum decline of 27.05 per cent in production is expected in case of groundnut.
In this current monsoon season, the cash crop section is likely to show a negative growth in terms of production. In sugarcane, the production is likely to decline marginally by 0.01 per cent and in cotton, the production is likely to decline by 4.81 per cent.