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Wednesday, 26 November 2014

Second - NBHC Kharif Crop Estimates for 2014-15

In continuation with our previous release on the Kharif Crop estimates, we review the Second Kharif Crop Estimate vis a vis acreage under sowing for the year 2014-15, based on the sowing data released by Ministry of Agriculture (MoA). Our first report was released on 24 July 2014. In our first report we had estimated a drop in the acreage for Maize (8.54 per cent) and soybean (12.50 per cent). As per the MoA’s report for final sowing of kharif crop for 2014-15, maize area has dropped by 12.88 per cent and soybean area has declined by 18.58 per cent over 2013-14. In the pulses sector, the decline in the final area was 1.19 per cent against our expectation of a marginal increase by 2.94 per cent. On the positive side, we had estimated a significant increase in the area for Jowar (18.55 per cent) and Bajra (11.06 per cent) which is almost in line with the MoA figures of 31.34 per cent and 16.09 per cent respectively. The acreage in other crops for the year 2014-15 are in line with their respective areas in 2013-14 with variation of 1 to 4 per cent on either side.
As per our estimates, the overall cereals production for the 2014-15 is expected to be in line with 2013-14 (123.56 million MT against 123.25 million MT). Against our earlier estimate we have raised our total food grain production marginally by 1.67 per cent to 129.59 million MT. Amongst the cereals, Maize is expected to decline by 12.88 per cent to 14.58 million MT and Ragi is expected to improve by 1.75 per cent to 1.85 million MT. A significant improvement has been estimated for Jowar and Bajra where the production is likely to be 3.86 million MT and 11.25 million MT (an increase of 31.34 per cent and 16.09 per cent respectively over our last estimate). In spite of the 2.22 per cent increase in the sowing area for Rice, we are estimating a marginal drop in the production by about 0.63 per cent owing to decline in the productivity in West Bengal, Uttar Pradesh and Chhattisgarh.     
In the pulses sector, despite of the late revival in monsoon, there was a drop in the acreage. Due to the erratic monsoon the most suffered crop was Urad followed by Tur (Pigeon pea) whose area declined by 10.81 per cent and 4.26 per cent respectively. As per our estimate, Tur production for the year 2014-15 is expected to decline by 15.42 per cent to 2.86 million MT over 2013-14 whereas the production of Urad is likely to improve marginally by 5.54 per cent to 1.15 million MT. Overall, the total Kharif pulses production is likely to improve marginally by 1.75 per cent over last year.
We stand by our earlier estimate of drop in the overall oil seed production (though the margin of decline is been reduced from 3.36 per cent to 0.81 per cent). Maximum decline of 21.98 per cent is expected in case of groundnut to 5.97 million MT from 7.66 million MT followed by 16.81 per cent in case of soybean to 9.94 million MT from 11.95 million MT a year ago.
In the current cropping season, we continue with our negative outlook in terms of area and production. In sugarcane, the production is likely to decline marginally by 3.5 per cent and in cotton, the production is likely to decline by 9.04 per cent over last year.



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