With the Rabi Sowing season coming to its end, NBHC is releasing its first Rabi crop estimate for the year 2014-15. As per our assessment and market feedback on sowing crop progress, the total rabi cereals’ production is expected to decline by 11.44 per cent over last year to 108.30 million tonnes. The drop in the production estimate is because of the recent delayed sowing of rabi crops and expectation of lower yield in major producing areas. The crops with major negative impact are Pulses and Oil Seeds. Wheat is expected to show a marginal decline in area by 2.97 per cent and a dip of 3.93 per cent in production over last year owing to expected decline in yield. In Jowar, which is the other major cereal crop, the area is expected to decline by 7.60 per cent and the production is expected to decline by 11.60 per cent to 3.36 million hectare and 2.70 million MT respectively. As the lack of residual moisture and delayed sowing has been the major cause for the shortfall. In most of the rabi crop there has been a marginal to significant fall in the acreage which itself is painting a gloomy picture to the overall rabi crop outlook for the coming season of 2014-15.
In the pulses sector, the Chana (Chickpea) is expected to be most affected by the lack of residual soil moisture in major growing areas. We expect the area under Chana to decline by 15.45 per cent over last year and the production is likely to decline by 19.80 per cent to 7.92 million MT. Overall, the total Rabi pulses production is likely to decline by 12.08 per cent over last year.
The oil seed sector is likely to see a decline of production by 11.56 per cent. Maximum decline of 36.77 per cent in production is expected in case of groundnut over last year.
On the aggregate basis, the total rabi crop production is expected to be 129.20 Million MT in 2014-15 against the production of 146.00 Million MT in 2013-14.