tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-80288622968670052382024-02-19T15:58:57.608+05:30Dr. Hanish Kumar Sinha - Agri Business Consultant (Freelance) Consultancy Service for the people associated with Commodity Business, agriculture, agri-warehousing, collateral funding in agriculture and agri-business Process Automation and would be greatly interested in empanelment as an Agri-Business Expert (Full time or Part Time) which I feel is the first step for going a long way in strengthening the operational and functional excellence of Agriculture Ecosystem. Hanishhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12987158992865046451noreply@blogger.comBlogger115125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8028862296867005238.post-71692179098678681522020-10-20T17:50:00.001+05:302020-10-20T17:50:11.952+05:30Kharif Crop Estimates 2020-21<p> <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/posts/hanish-kumar-sinha-agri-%E2%80%93business-consultant-ph-d-agricultural-economics-251b911_kharif-crop-estimates-2020-21-activity-6724185598006988800-izEr">Kharif Crop Estimates 2020-21</a></p><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 6.0pt;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #1f497d; font-family: "Candara","sans-serif"; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 8.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri;">NBHC’s First
Kharif Crop Estimates for 2020-21</span></b><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #1f497d; font-family: "Candara","sans-serif"; font-size: 16.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></b></p>
<p style="background: white; margin-bottom: 4.0pt; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm; text-align: justify;"><span style="background: white; color: #201f1e; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt;">India witnessed <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">‘Above Normal’</b> rainfall at 109 per cent
(95.4 cm) of the long period average (LPA) this year against long period
average of 87.7 cm based on data of 1961-2010. In three of four months, June
(118 per cent), August (127 per cent) and September (104 per cent) witnessing
above normal rainfall, while July recorded (90 per cent) deficient rainfall.
Division wise the east and northeast India, central India and south India have
received above normal rainfall and northwest India division has recorded
deficient rainfall. Good rains have boosted sowing of the kharif crops which
farmers have sown in record 1095.37 lakh hectares as on date as compared to
1085.65 lakh hectares a year ago. Nineteen states and union territories have
received normal rainfall this year, while nine states and union territories saw
excess rainfall. Bihar, Gujarat, Meghalaya, Goa, Andhra Pradesh Telangana,
Tamil Nadu, Karnataka and Lakshadweep islands have recorded above normal
rainfall. Sikkim recorded large excess rainfall. However, Nagaland, Manipur,
Mizoram, Tripura, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, Jammu and Kashmir have
recorded deficiency. Ladakh has recorded large deficiency. Delhi has also
received deficient rainfall. The total live storage in 123 important
reservoirs in different parts of the country, monitored by CWC on week ending
16.10.2020 was 148.459 Billion Cubic Meter (BCM) (87 per cent of the storage
capacity at Full Reservoirs Level (FRL) against 152.024 (BCM) (89 percent of
the storage capacity at FRL) during corresponding date of pervious year and
128.887 (BCM) (75 per cent of the storage capacity at FRL) which is the average
storage of the last 10 years. In the last few days, in the post monsoon phase –
winter rains, most parts of Maharashtra have received moderate to heavy
rainfall due to cyclonic disturbance in a well-marked low-pressure area over South
Madhya Maharashtra and adjoining areas. Heavy to extremely heavy rain was
reported from most parts of the state with districts of Pune, Solapur,
Osmanabad, among others, reporting flash floods as well. Preliminary reports by
the commissioner of agriculture stated that crops over 4.5 lakh hectares were
damaged in the rains. Standing crops of soybean, maize, sugarcane and tur
reported damage. The latest IMD forecast indicates cooling of sea surface
temperatures will most likely continue and weak La Niña conditions will likely
turn into moderate La Niña conditions during the coming months and sustain till
early next year. No cyclone has developed this October yet. But the depression
over north interior Karnataka and adjoining areas of Maharashtra moved west-north
westwards and weakened into a well-marked low-pressure area over south Madhya
Maharashtra. The current low-pressure system had initially formed over the west
central Bay of Bengal on October 11. It had crossed the north Andhra Pradesh
coast and made landfall over north Andhra Pradesh, following which it moved
west north-westwards and weakened into a depression the same day. The system
has already caused extremely heavy rain (over 20 cm) over coastal Andhra
Pradesh, Telangana, Karnataka, Maharashtra, etc. Keeping in mind the above
developments, we are come up with the<b> NBHC’s First Kharif Crop
Estimates for 2020-21</b>. </span><span style="color: black; font-size: 10.0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="background: white; margin-bottom: 4.0pt; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm; text-align: justify;"><span style="background: white; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Total Rice is expected to show marginal
improvements in area by 6.74 per cent but production is expected to decline by
2.20 per cent than last year. A smaller crop last year forced India to import
maize after a gap of two years. The country imported about 500,000 tonnes maize
in 2019-20 (Apr-Mar) to meet the requirement of the poultry industry. This
kharif season, acreage is expected to increase by 2.31 per cent but still we
are expecting a 5.71 per cent lower crop size because of heavy rain is seen
affecting yield of the standing crop in Madhya Pradesh and Karnataka both key
growers of kharif maize. Area of Jowar is expected to decline by 1.17 per cent
despite increase in production by 1.22 per cent and Bajra acreage is expected
to increase marginally by 3.71 per cent but production is expected decline
significantly by 14.40 per cent.<span style="color: red;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="Default" style="margin-bottom: 4.0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="background: white; color: windowtext; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">In the pulses sector, acreage and production of Tur is
expected to increase by 9.78 per cent and 5.48 per cent respectively due to
crop condition is good so far in the major growing states of Maharashtra,
Gujarat, Telangana and Jharkhand. Urad area is expected to increase by 1.47 per
cent whereas production is expected to increase significantly by 45.38 per cent
because even if in some places the crops have been damaged, alternatively,
there has been an increase in the sowing area as well. We expect the area under
Moong is increase by 19.70 per cent whereas the production is expected lower by
3.91 per cent mainly due to crop damage in major producing states.<span style="background: yellow; mso-highlight: yellow;"> <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="Default" style="margin-bottom: 4.0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="background: white; color: windowtext; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">In oilseeds sector, excess rains in Central India are
expected to dampen the prospects of a record harvest for kharif oilseeds,
mainly soyabean and groundnut. Soybean acreage expected to improve by 8.17 per
cent but the production is expected significantly lowered by 15.29 per cent due
to heavy rains in September and October in major growing area which has
diminished hope of normal crop. Groundnut acreage expected to improve by 38.61
per cent but the production is expected significantly lowered by 14.69 per
cent. Castor area and production is expected to decline by 11.51 per cent and 23.74
per cent. The decline in production is expected to the tune of 8.00 per cent and
14.89 per cent for Sesamum and Sunflower respectively. <o:p></o:p></span></p><br /><p></p>Hanishhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12987158992865046451noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8028862296867005238.post-3633964487570780332020-09-24T20:20:00.002+05:302020-09-24T20:24:35.260+05:30COPPER: THE TRUE FIGHTER <p><a href="https://lnkd.in/dAG6gzH">COPPER: THE TRUE FIGHTER </a> </p><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 4pt; text-align: justify;"><!--[if gte vml 1]><v:shapetype id="_x0000_t202" coordsize="21600,21600"
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 4pt; text-align: justify;">COPPER: THE TRUE
FIGHTER<span style="font-size: 12pt;"> gives month on month account of the
development in the copper market over the last decade. It highlights the
changes in the copper price over each changing dynamics of supply and demand.
Reading through the articles one can feel the movement in the copper market
owing to the change geopolitical and economic changes in the fundamentals. The
book gives you a virtual account of the various events and activity that has
happened in the world of copper and global economy as copper is gauged as the
barometer of the global economy. The Main factors affecting price determination
of copper which are product cost, the utility and demand, extent of competition
in the market, government and legal regulations, pricing objectives and
marketing methods used have been explained in detail with real time examples.</span></p>
<p style="margin-bottom: 4.0pt; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm; margin: 0cm 0cm 4pt; text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span face=""Calibri","sans-serif"" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-IN; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Dr. Hanish Kumar Sinha</span></b><span face=""Calibri","sans-serif"" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-IN; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"> is an Enthusiastic, Dedicated and Detailed oriented
Commodity Researcher who with his proven skills has strengthened the
operational and functional excellence of the Indian Commodity Sector. His
skills with over 20 years of experience in in the field of Commodity Research,
Risk Mitigation, Collateral Finance and Trade Facilitation well supported with
Sigma Six Black Belt and Business Analytics Certification has allowed him to
excel in achieving his professional goals aligned fully with those of the
commodities. The author is a PhD in Agricultural Economics from Banaras Hindu
University. Dr. Sinha has made notable contributions across print and
electronic media as “Commodity Expert” and has shared valuable insights with
regards to commodities market on Zee Business, NDTV Profit, ET NOW, CNBC AWAAZ,
Business Standard, Economic Times, Asian Age and other business channels and
print media. He has been a versatile speaker for various industry platforms.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><a href="https://www.amazon.in/dp/1636068081">https://www.amazon.in/dp/1636068081</a><o:p></o:p></p>
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">FOREWORD</span></b><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">For thousands of years copper
remained important for making tools, weapons, jewellery and objects of art.
Presently, copper is used in building construction, power generation and
transmission, electronic product manufacturing, and the production of
industrial machinery and transportation vehicles. Copper wiring and plumbing
are integral to the appliances, heating and cooling systems, and
telecommunications links used every day in homes and businesses. Copper is an
essential component in the motors, wiring, radiators, connectors, brakes, and
bearings used in cars and trucks. Copper content in the average car ranges from
20 kilograms (44 pounds) in small cars to 45 kilograms (99 pounds) in luxury
and hybrid vehicles. But all these uses have limitation and are solely depended
on the supply and demand dynamics. The supply comes from the natural resources
which are notoriously difficult to monetise correctly as new deposits are
discovered, depletion is currently not understood, extraction technologies have
improved, new uses are found for resources and the occurrence of common pool
resource problems is prevalent. The market behaviour is depended on the mining
resources which is concentrated in Latin America and consumption demand of
which China accounts for 45 per cent of it. Political and economic changes in
both these countries tend to have significant implications for copper prices.
Labour unrest can disrupt supply and drive prices higher, while rapid economic
growth and infrastructure development can also drive demand, and subsequently
prices, higher.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 4pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">Dynamism is
the key for copper market and different factor affecting the prices weigh
differently in different years which has been adequately explained in the book <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Copper: The True Fighter </b>with various
degrees of application. In addition to classic issues of supply and demand and
economic growth the following specific issues are important drivers of copper
prices: <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 4.0pt; margin-left: 21.3pt; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm; margin: 0cm 0cm 4pt 21.3pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt; mso-char-type: symbol; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-symbol-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-char-type: symbol; mso-symbol-font-family: Symbol;">·</span></span><span style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;"> <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Global
economic cycles</b>: particularly in emerging economies: copper price and
demand typically reflect global economic cycles as it is broadly used across a
variety of economic sectors. It is closely tied to trends in developing
economies as it is heavily used in infrastructure development; <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 4.0pt; margin-left: 21.3pt; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm; margin: 0cm 0cm 4pt 21.3pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt; mso-char-type: symbol; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-symbol-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-char-type: symbol; mso-symbol-font-family: Symbol;">·</span></span><span style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;"> <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Chile
and China</b>: the two biggest players in supply and demand of copper,
producing or consuming over 30% of the global total. Political and economic
changes in both these countries tend to have significant implications for
copper prices. Labour unrest can disrupt supply and drive prices higher, while
rapid economic growth and infrastructure development can also drive demand, and
subsequently prices, higher; <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 4.0pt; margin-left: 21.3pt; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm; margin: 0cm 0cm 4pt 21.3pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt; mso-char-type: symbol; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-symbol-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-char-type: symbol; mso-symbol-font-family: Symbol;">·</span></span><span style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;"> <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Declining
ore grades and other production issues:</b> it is noted that at many existing
mines ore grades are declining, therefore more has to be mined to achieve the
same outputs. This increases a variety of associated costs in terms of labour,
energy, water and land use which are passed through in prices of refined
copper; <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 4.0pt; margin-left: 21.3pt; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm; margin: 0cm 0cm 4pt 21.3pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt; mso-char-type: symbol; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-symbol-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-char-type: symbol; mso-symbol-font-family: Symbol;">·</span></span><span style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;"> <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Global
push towards energy efficiency and energy infrastructure upgrade:</b> copper is
in high demand for its electrical transmission qualities, the large scale
changes to energy infrastructure and demand for efficient products is a
specific issue in copper demand; <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 4.0pt; margin-left: 21.3pt; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm; margin: 0cm 0cm 4pt 21.3pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt; mso-char-type: symbol; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-symbol-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-char-type: symbol; mso-symbol-font-family: Symbol;">·</span></span><span style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;"> <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Expectations
and commodity markets:</b> copper is a commodity that is very closely tracked
by markets, attracting significant trade and speculative activity, therefore
expectations of economic growth, investment, recession, disruption can all lead
to significant price impacts. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 4pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">This book has
been a witness to one of the great revival of global economy from the Great
Depression, while events in Greece and elsewhere in Europe threatened the very
survival of the Euro Area. A disappointing recovery gave rise to concerns about
stagnation, the idea that deficient demand combined with stagnant productivity
growth doomed the advanced countries to chronic slow growth. In contrast,
emerging markets, led by but not limited to China, escaped the crisis largely
unscathed. They continued to expand throughout the crisis and for much of the
subsequent decade. As a result, the global economy grew at a more than
respectable average annual rate of 3.4 percent over the years from 2008 to
2018. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 4pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">The phase of
globalization and growth survived the turbulence buffeting the world starting
in 2008 seemingly testified to the solid foundations on which the
twenty-first-century global economy rested. It all came apart in the final
years of the period. In its June 2016 referendum, the United Kingdom voted to
leave the European Union. In 2017 one of the first acts of the newly elected US
president, Donald Trump, was to withdraw from the Trans-Pacific Partnership.
The Trump administration declined to confirm the appointment of new members to
the WTO’s dispute settlement panel and in 2018 slapped tariffs on imports from
China, Europe, and even Canada, provoking tit-for-tat retaliation. The Chinese
economy showed signs of slowing, and emerging markets from Argentina to Turkey
experienced strains as the US Federal Reserve hiked interest rates. The
stability of the global economy, it appeared, hung in the balance. Another key
development over that period was the emergence of China as a leading power with
geopolitical ambitions. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 4pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">Europe’s
Foreign and security policy leverage and economic-policy leverage go hand in
hand. The EU, for its part, has not shown the capacity to mount a common
foreign and security policy; different European countries have very different
views of what this would entail. The share of military spending in GDP is lower
in Europe than in both the US and China. This leaves China as the obvious
candidate to occupy the space vacated by the United States. As the leading
trade partner and source of foreign investment for a growing number of countries,
it already has some capacity to influence the shape of the international
economic order.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 4pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">Apart from the
differing growth perspective in US, Europe and Asia, copper market witnessed
one of the most dreaded pandemic of its kind, “COVID 19 – Corona Virus” which
apart from taking millions of lives across the world, led the entire copper
dynamics off balance. The people at large are clueless about this mysterious
virus and are still learning to live with it. This book finally details about
how copper moves on strength to strength in the Covid times.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 4pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 4pt; text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">Dr. Hanish Kumar Sinha<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: justify;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">Consultant – Agri-business, Research & Development <o:p></o:p></span></i></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: justify;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">Mumbai - 2020</span></i><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></i></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p><br /><p></p>Hanishhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12987158992865046451noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8028862296867005238.post-45340478082626574732020-08-14T17:40:00.001+05:302020-08-14T17:40:34.741+05:30Warehouse Receipt Financing – A Game Changing Perspective<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 4.0pt; text-align: justify;">Field
Warehousing is a security device which enables the borrower to deliver to the
lender legally valid documents of title and to grant a possessory pledge of
goods stored in the borrower's own plant, mill, refinery or warehouse. The
issuer of the field warehouse receipts creates a legally independent warehouse
within the borrower's premises by leasing the storage area, controlling
movements in and out, and posting prominent signs giving public notice that the
controlled area is operated by the field warehousing company. Access to the
warehouse is controlled either by members of the borrower’s staff who are
temporarily employed by the warehouse company for this purpose, or by members
of the field warehouse company's staff. The warehouse records and inventory
levels are periodically audited. The integrity of the staff (whether permanent
or temporary) and contractual liability of the field warehouse company are
insured under a fidelity and errors and omissions policy.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 4.0pt; text-align: justify;">Visualising
the growing financial needs of the farmers, WDRA licensed two repositories for
facilitating the issue of NWRs. In India, the term ‘negotiable warehouse
receipt’ is defined in Section 2(m) of the Warehousing (Development and
Regulation) Act, 2007 (WDR Act), which came into force from 25th October 2010.
WDR Act provides for issuance of Negotiable Warehouse Receipts (NWRs) by the warehouses registered under this Act.
A "negotiable warehouse receipt" means a warehouse receipt under
which the goods represented therein are deliverable to the depositor or order,
the endorsement of which has the effect of transfer of goods represented
thereby and the endorsee for which takes a good title. A negotiable instrument
is essentially a document embodying a right to the payment of money /goods
[which implies creating a right in favour of some person] and it may be
transferred from person to person. This developed historically from efforts to
make credit instruments transferable; that is, documents proving that somebody
was in their debt were used by creditors to meet their own liabilities. A
negotiable instrument can be transferred to any number of persons before
maturity. The means of accomplishing a transfer from one creditor to another is
by endorsement. It means writing of a person’s name on the back of the
instrument for the purpose of negotiation. There are about 55,000 warehouses in
the country out of which only 735, having a capacity of 6.6 million tonnes,
have valid registration with WDRA. About 50% of this capacity is located in
Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, while Jharkhand, Odisha and West Bengal
have just one registered warehouse each. The farmer/trader has no protection
against the warehouse in case of deterioration in quality of produce or
pilferage by the warehouse. The produce stored in such warehouses is generally
managed by collateral management companies and they arrange pledge loans
against such WRs. <o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 4.0pt; text-align: justify;"><b>Stakeholder wise use of warehouse receipt
finance:<o:p></o:p></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; text-align: justify;"><b>Farmers:</b> As against traditional
loans by banks, loans against WR are quick. WFR brings about better price
realization for farmers, especially small and marginal farmers thereby reduce
poverty. A major impetus on WFR can help government realise their promise of a
50 per cent profit over input cost for farmers.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; text-align: justify;"><b>Money Lender:</b> Lack of access to
institutional credit forces farmers to knock the doors of informal sector that
charges hefty interest rates. A well-developed WRF will kill the back of the
informal sector.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; text-align: justify;"><b>Encourage Scientific Storage:</b> Spoilage
and wastage have become the hallmark of Indian agriculture. It is estimated
that 25-30 per cent of agricultural produce every year is lost due to poor storage
and frail handling post-harvest. Increased usages of WFR will kick-start a
circle of investments in warehousing and fix the missing link in the supply
chain. <o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; text-align: justify;"><b>Banks:</b> The average tenor of loan
against WHR is around six months. This helps banks with their asset-liability
mismatch issues as they can churn portfolios quickly. Further, lending against
WHR is safer and more liquid for banks. Intermediaries like collateral managers
make the job easier for banks as far as underlying collateral is concerned. WRF
help banks achieve their priority sector lending targets in an efficient
way. <o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; text-align: justify;"><b>Overall Economy:</b> WRF can
dramatically reduce inter-seasonal price fluctuations. Rural demand has slumped
in recent years, which impacted the overall economy. WRF increases liquidity in
the rural economy, helping consumption. A well-developed WRF system can also
help fix the supply issues, which will lead to a lower inflation-lower interest
rates regime in India.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 4.0pt; text-align: justify;"><b>Advantages of warehouse receipt financing</b>:<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 21.3pt; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto; mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-align: justify; text-autospace: none; text-indent: -18.0pt;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Wingdings; mso-bidi-font-family: Wingdings; mso-fareast-font-family: Wingdings;">Ø<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><span lang="EN-US">Improve farm income
and smooth domestic prices by providing an instrument to farmers to spread
sales throughout the crop year.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 21.3pt; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto; mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-align: justify; text-autospace: none; text-indent: -18.0pt;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Wingdings; mso-bidi-font-family: Wingdings; mso-fareast-font-family: Wingdings;">Ø<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><span lang="EN-US">Mobilize credit to
agriculture by creating secure collateral for banks.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 21.3pt; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto; mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-align: justify; text-autospace: none; text-indent: -18.0pt;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Wingdings; mso-bidi-font-family: Wingdings; mso-fareast-font-family: Wingdings;">Ø<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><span lang="EN-US">Help create cash and
forward markets and thus enhance price discovery and competition.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 4.0pt; margin-left: 21.3pt; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto; mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-align: justify; text-autospace: none; text-indent: -18.0pt;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Wingdings; mso-bidi-font-family: Wingdings; mso-fareast-font-family: Wingdings;">Ø<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">
</span></span><!--[endif]--><span lang="EN-US">Provide a way to gradually reduce the role of government in
agricultural commercialization. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 4.0pt; margin-left: 21.3pt; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto; mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-align: justify; text-autospace: none; text-indent: -18.0pt;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Wingdings; mso-bidi-font-family: Wingdings; mso-fareast-font-family: Wingdings;">Ø<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">
</span></span><!--[endif]--><span lang="EN-US">Combine with price hedging instruments to </span><span lang="EN-US">predetermine the cost of future
purchases of sales.</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 4.0pt; text-align: justify;"><b>Major constraints in warehouse receipt
financing:<o:p></o:p></b></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 21.3pt; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto; mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-align: justify; text-autospace: none; text-indent: -18.0pt;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Wingdings; mso-bidi-font-family: Wingdings; mso-fareast-font-family: Wingdings;">Ø<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Wingdings; text-indent: -18pt;">Ø<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="text-indent: -18pt;">Most of the products
of warehouse financing / modus operandi do not reflect the full range of
interested stakeholders and are not closely linked to the timely availability
of credit hence, identification of common minimum quality items suitable to all
stakeholders will help to design the system and thereby improve customer
satisfaction.</span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 21.3pt; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto; mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-align: justify; text-autospace: none; text-indent: -18.0pt;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Wingdings; mso-bidi-font-family: Wingdings; mso-fareast-font-family: Wingdings;">Ø<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><span lang="EN-US">Lack of awareness
among the grass-root level customers and there are non- uniform complex,
non-transparent models of financing to cater the need of different category of
customers, there is a need to modify these models as per the current conditions
or requirement of clientele, taking into account input and output parameters
along with the process parameters of lending institutions.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 21.3pt; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto; mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-align: justify; text-autospace: none; text-indent: -18.0pt;"><span lang="EN-US"><br /></span></p>
<span style="font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-IN; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;">The
inter dependability of critical dimensions / parameters of warehouse financing
against other priority sector financial product has not been researched.</span><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiCimm4Rr3sIOCfxDEe7SoAL0MGJJRXADzfT1KMSZTsqfh5Vw-0a5JRAyPzGR7KUzQ45NYJ0YUxfqr6uOXpoSPof4E0JZ0ScZIr2CHzo6e_OnbTxo1U1TbG5GzQxs1if8QdoKb5Zfy_xxg/s504/ware+housing+capacity+state+wise.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="504" data-original-width="356" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiCimm4Rr3sIOCfxDEe7SoAL0MGJJRXADzfT1KMSZTsqfh5Vw-0a5JRAyPzGR7KUzQ45NYJ0YUxfqr6uOXpoSPof4E0JZ0ScZIr2CHzo6e_OnbTxo1U1TbG5GzQxs1if8QdoKb5Zfy_xxg/s0/ware+housing+capacity+state+wise.jpg" /></a></div><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 4.0pt; text-align: justify;"><br /></p>Hanishhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12987158992865046451noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8028862296867005238.post-68559702473405372062020-07-08T12:56:00.002+05:302020-07-08T12:56:28.510+05:30Improved Demand & Sullen Supplies Propels Copper Recovery<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 4.0pt; text-align: justify;"><font face="georgia">The market is learning to live with Covid 19 and amidst significant
dent in the supply owing to Covid cases in major mining areas of Chile; the
copper market has made significant recovery in the last 15 to 20 days. The
South American nation had recorded 298,557 cases of the virus as of July 7,
with the state-owned copper mining company, Codelco, confirming that 2433 of
its staff had contracted the virus. Work at all of Codelco’s Northern District
projects including Gaby, Ministro Hales and Radomiro and Tomic have now been
temporarily suspended. BHP Group has ramped down activity at its Cerro Colorado
copper mine in Chile. The mine produced 71,700 tonnes of copper in 2019,
accounting for about 1.2 per cent of Chile’s total production. Apart from the
supply of the raw copper, the extensive lockdown measures across the world had
stalled the scrap generation machine, and trade data available for the top
scrap exporting nations indicated a more than 50 per cent year-on-year
contraction in supply. The death toll from the virus in Peru, the world’s no. 2
copper producer, now stands at 10,589, the 10<sup>th</sup> highest in the
world, based on data from Johns Hopkins University. For confirmed cases, the
Andean country has the fifth-highest in the world. Looking further ahead, the
supply impact of the coronavirus is expected to extend far beyond this year, as
2020 has already seen capital expenditure guidance cuts from copper miners and
the mine project pipeline is shrinking owing to lockdown-related delays.<o:p></o:p></font></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 4.0pt; text-align: justify;"><font face="georgia">The demand improvement is also adding up the positivity of the copper
market as the unprecedented levels of stimulus across the world are set to
sustain the recovery in copper demand in the longer term. The extensive
lockdown measures across the world had stalled the scrap generation machine,
and trade data available for the top scrap exporting nations indicated a more
than 50 per cent year-on-year contraction in April shipments. The unprecedented
levels of stimulus across the world were set to sustain this recovery in the
longer term, especially from the copper-hungry green energy and digital economy
sectors, which had been singled out for investment by many governments. Renewable
power generation is also copper-hungry and on the rise as countries seek to
meet net zero commitments. China is the single most important source of demand
for industrial metals. It buys between 40 per cent and 50 per cent of the
world’s raw aluminium, copper and steel while using nearly two-thirds of the
world’s iron ore. These figures, however, exaggerate somewhat China’s role in
these markets. While China buys a large share of raw materials, about one-third
to half of its purchases was re-exported as components in intermediate or
finished goods. The top metals consumer China has carried out an environmental
campaign against foreign garbage in recent years, progressively restricting
scrap inflows and planning a ban on all solid waste imports by the end of 2020.
But, for some undefined reasons, China is dragging its feet in releasing new
codes governing high-grade copper and aluminium scrap imports, leaving scrap
metal firms abroad confused and without a clear way into their key market.<o:p></o:p></font></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 4.0pt; text-align: justify;"><font face="georgia">A slump in global manufacturing showed signs of easing in June as a
rebound in Chinese and U.S. activity offered some hope the world’s two largest
economies may have passed the worst of the devastation caused by the novel
coronavirus, while the collapse in European factory activity abated. The bulls
have been firmly in control of copper trade in recent weeks, with the price
graph showing a very solid V-shaped recovery, but at the same time as global
economies are not showing such optimism. A lot of the bullishness comes from a
variety of global fiscal packages aimed at shoring up countries hammered by the
coronavirus pandemic. The very strong US non-farm payrolls number continues to
mask a lot of ills and investors are happy to hang their hopes on more
stimulus. Demand in the US and Europe should recover as lockdowns are hopefully
lifted, and Chinese demand should continue to improve due to stimulus measures.
In the long-term on the demand side, we are looking at higher-intensity copper
usage, higher copper loading in vehicles with the advent of electric vehicles
and potentially higher infrastructure spending as well, so that is something we
see on the demand side that might be about three to five years out. Investors
are increasingly optimistic about an economic rebound, with the mood bolstered
after China brought the new coronavirus outbreak under control. The market
gloom over the metals that will power the cars of the future is starting to
lift. Supply overhangs and then the coronavirus pandemic had crushed short-term
prospects for the minerals used to make rechargeable batteries.<o:p></o:p></font></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 4.0pt; text-align: justify;"><font face="georgia">Across the world, it is expressed that Government incentives have eased
some of the sting from the pandemic which hit the global demand significantly.
Despite the oil-price slump that rocked the nascent EV industry, China's
government is doubling down on its push into electric vehicles with a range of
support measures. Germany's 130 billion euro ($146 billion) recovery budget
allocates about 41 billion euros to areas like public transport, electric
vehicles and renewable energy. France announced its own 8 billion-euro stimulus
package for the auto industry, focusing heavily on the domestic EV supply
chain. The outlook for battery demand was not as bad as some were expecting at
the height of the global outbreak. Strong signals are there that stimulus
efforts will be focused on the shift toward clean energy and electrification in
many parts of the world, which is strengthening the medium-long term outlook
for demand.<o:p></o:p></font></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 4.0pt; text-align: justify;"><font face="georgia">Since, supply is usually easier to track than demand as we can see
global miners' projects in the pipeline and the probability of them coming to
fruition. Demand is the much harder side of the equation to monitor. It is very
sensitive to world GDP, especially Chinese demand. Hence, it got hit extremely
hard when China shut down. As China is opening back up with its manufacturing
rebounding, copper is facing supply side constraints in Chile, the world's
largest producing nation, due to coronavirus concerns and mine closures on back
of quarantining. Codelco's curtailment of some smelting operations last week
after fatalities among its workforce shows just how at risk the supply side is.
China is desperate to boost its GDP growth, or in this case defend it, and the
fastest way to produce good economic data is to boost infrastructure spending.
It goes against China's long-term deleveraging of industrial investment in
favour of consumer investment, but right now it just needs to provide a floor
to the data. In addition, China is very strategic. There has been speculation
the State Reserve Bureau has been using this price weakness to top off its
strategic inventories of the metal, which is quite possible as China has a
buy-low, sell-high mentality. The same was seen in oil. Chinese officials are
extremely shrewd in purchasing their raw materials and are very opportunistic
and tactical.<o:p></o:p></font></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 4.0pt; text-align: justify;"><font face="georgia">Finally, we know that the only reason the market and asset prices are
up is due to the unprecedented liquidity injections by central banks. It is
like trying to jump-start a car that has been dying for the past year but the
owner does not want to scrap it. It is throwing everything at the car just to
keep it moving and buying time that the car can move on its own without the
push. The next few weeks are critical as the second wave of the virus is
showing up and a number of countries are delaying their re-openings.</font><o:p></o:p></p><br />Hanishhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12987158992865046451noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8028862296867005238.post-75398224252964663662020-06-30T10:42:00.000+05:302020-06-30T10:42:21.076+05:30Reasons behind Increased Sowing in Current Kharif Season 2020-21<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 1.15; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;"><font face="arial"><span style="color: black; line-height: 1.15;">Higher water levels in reservoirs, more-than-normal rains in the
current summer season and expectation of a good monsoon have motivated farmers
to increase the pre-kharif area under crops like paddy, moong, maize, bajra and
groundnut, resulting in a 36% year-on-year rise in crop area so far. </span>This
was possible owing to the heavy rains which happened due to heavy rains towards
the end of rabi season. The cropping sentiments were also boosted by the IMD
forecast of Normal Monsoon for the year 2020-21. The advancement of monsoon in
most part of the country about a week to 10 days ahead of scheduled date has
also boosted the sowing sentiments. <span style="line-height: 1.15;"> </span><o:p></o:p></font></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 1.15; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="color: black; line-height: 1.15;"><o:p style="line-height: 1.15;"><font face="arial"> </font></o:p></span><span style="font-family: arial;">One point needs to be noted that the kharif crop has taken
incremental jump in the states of Gujarat, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh and
Uttar Pradesh and the crops affected are pulses and oilseeds which is majorly concentrated
in these 4 states. As per figures of sowing till 27</span><sup style="font-family: arial; line-height: 1.15;">th</sup><span style="font-family: arial;"> June 2020, the
area under coarse grains have been hiked by 100 per cent followed by the biggest
increase is in oilseeds, under which area has gone up by more than six times.
The area under pulses has increased by up to three times.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 1.15; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="color: black; line-height: 1.15;"><o:p style="line-height: 1.15;"><font face="arial"> </font></o:p></span><span style="font-family: arial;">The current pace of sowing is encouraging but the real development
lies the months of July and August where the country is expecting 103 % and 97%
rains over LPA, where conditions of flood is expected to be more rampant than
the previous years, which might force more cases of replanting of seeds
impacting the yield and total quantum of kharif crop production.</span></p><br />Hanishhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12987158992865046451noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8028862296867005238.post-73736442978965711352020-06-13T10:35:00.000+05:302020-06-13T10:35:05.670+05:30Copper Moves on After Confronting Covid-19 & Looming Economic Recession <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 1; margin-bottom: 4pt; text-align: justify;"><font face="arial" size="2">The global copper market is going through an unusual period in history
as the coronavirus pandemic has unleashed a series of unprecedented events
affecting every industry. As part of the new emerging geographic scenario, the
United States is forecast to readjust to a 0.9 per cent CAGR. Within Europe,
the region worst hit by the pandemic, Germany is likely to add over 53.7 thousand
MT to the region’s size over the next 7 to 8 years. In addition, over 65.1 thousand
MT worth of projected demand in the region is expected to come from Rest of
European markets. In Japan, the Electrical & Electronics segment is likely
to reach a market size of 549.7 thousand MT by the close of the analysis period.
Blamed for the pandemic, significant political and economic challenges confront
China. Amid the growing push for decoupling and economic distancing, the
changing relationship between China and the rest of the world is expected to
influence competition and opportunities in the global Copper market. Against
this backdrop and the changing geopolitical, business and consumer sentiments,
the world’s second largest economy will grow at 3.9 per cent over the next
couple of years and add approximately 1.2 Million MT in terms of addressable
market opportunity. Continuous monitoring for emerging signs of a possible new
world order post-COVID-19 crisis is a must for aspiring businesses and their
astute leaders seeking to find success in the now changing copper market
landscape.<o:p></o:p></font></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 1; margin-bottom: 4pt; text-align: justify;"><font face="arial" size="2">Apart from the Electrical & Electronics segment, the construction
and manufacturing sector is also showing signs of recovery. Economic data is
signalling a robust recovery in the Chinese construction and manufacturing
sectors during the second quarter. Demand for copper in China, where half the
world’s output is consumed, has picked up significantly since Beijing eased its
lockdown in March. As its economy has clicked back into gear, physical
premiums — the extra price buyers pay to take delivery of the metal immediately
— have risen sharply while inventories have plunged as manufacturers scrambled
for supply. The closely tracked utilisation rates at wire rod mills — which
account for two-thirds of China’s refined copper consumption — have rebounded,
hitting 90 per cent in April. Thus, we can clearly see signs of economic
recoveries in different parts of the world, though the pace of recovery is too
varied in different economic locales. <o:p></o:p></font></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 1; margin-bottom: 4pt; text-align: justify;"><font face="arial" size="2">The decision to keep Chinese factories shut after the Lunar New Year
sent shudders through the massive mines of Brazil and Chile that feed them. So
far, mining heavyweights like Vale and Codelco have managed to continue
operating through the outbreak, adopting safety measures without stalling
output. Other mines in the region that did shut are now reopening. Now, with
China getting back to work and Latin America the new virus hot spot, concern is
shifting from demand to supply. Alarm bells are starting to ring again in metal
markets as the outbreak explodes in Latin America, with the region’s highly
urbanized population of 600 million accounting for about 40 per cent of daily
deaths globally. That’s coming at a time when Chinese demand is recovering and
markets tighten. Chile is the top exporter of copper and Brazil is the
second-largest shipper of iron ore. So far, mining heavyweights like Vale and
Codelco have managed to continue operating through the outbreak, adopting
safety measures without stalling output. Other mines in the region that did
shut are now reopening.<o:p></o:p></font></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 1; margin-bottom: 4pt; text-align: justify;"><font face="arial" size="2">The positive in the market is stiff recovering of the Chinese economy. The
focus is on recovering activity in China rather than downturn in the rest of
the world. Beijing’s stimulus package, centred on “new” infrastructure such as
electric vehicle charging points, should be positive for copper demand. China’s
continued strong imports and relatively flat global exchange stocks reinforce
the positive optics. Unsurprisingly, given the level of lockdown disruption in
key producer countries such as Peru, global mine supply is expected to fall by
4 per cent this year. That will translate into a 2.4 per cent drop in
production of refined metal. A surplus of copper isn’t obvious right now.
Global exchange stocks currently total 461500 MT, which is only 549000 MT
higher than this time last year. Rises in LME and CME inventories have been
almost totally offset by declines on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, where
registered stocks have fallen by 219000 MT over in April and May. Post
lockdown, China’s consumption of refined copper improved by about 4 per cent at
1.19 million MT in the first four months of the year, although higher import
flows may be partly down to a near collapse in scrap supplies. Imports of
copper scrap totalled just 292,400 tonnes in January-April, down 43 per cent on
last year. <o:p></o:p></font></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 1; margin-bottom: 4pt; text-align: justify;"><font face="arial" size="2">One should always remember that China consumes over 45 per cent of the
global copper. The current concern is the slowing demand signs in the Chinese
market. Although Beijing’s latest stimulus package ticks a lot of copper boxes,
there is absence of liquidity flood and construction boom such as seen a decade
ago. Then there is the problem of what China is going to do with all the
copper-containing products, such as air-conditioners and white goods, it
normally exports. The coronavirus’ second-round hit on demand, in the form of
Western consumer appetite, looks set to be bigger than the direct impact of
lockdowns. China’s factories suffered a collapse in export orders in April,
according to both official and Caixin Purchasing Manager’s Indices. Weak
exports are the point of maximum weakness for China’s copper sector, although
it could take several months before a build in product inventories works its
way back up the value chain to the refined metal segment. Moreover, the fear of
resurgence of US – China trade war, which seems to be a reality, given the
aggressive postures taken by China on several geo-political fronts. <o:p></o:p></font></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 1; margin-bottom: 4pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="line-height: 1;"><font face="arial" size="2">During the current pandemic era, copper demand
from the top consumer China has fallen by 2.8 per cent to 11.87 million MT this
year but is expected to rise by 2.6 per cent in 2021. Demand from other key
consumers like Europe, North America including US, Canada and Mexico is also
expected to deteriorate this year. Going forward, a swift turnaround in demand
is least expected. Global industrial activities remain on the lower side due to
the negative impact of the pandemic. The copper market is expected to find more
support Global reported refined copper demand in 2019 was 23.915 million MT, up
25 thousand MT on that for 2018. For 2020 the forecasts suggest that refined
copper demand might be 22.625 million MT, a decrease of 5.4 per cent. For 2021,
demand for refined copper might increase by 4.4 per cent to 23.625 million MT. Looming
tensions between US and China is likely to worsen their trade relations further
that may on weigh demand from the world’s largest Copper consumer China. In
spite of the pick-up in Chinese industrial activity and mine disruptions, it is
still expected that copper supply would outpace demand for this year — the most
significant annual market surplus since the global financial crisis since
2007-08. Beijing’s stimulus package, centred on “new” infrastructure such as
electric vehicle charging points, should be positive for copper demand. Chinese
government stimulus and backlog orders accumulated during the
coronavirus-fuelled lockdowns have supported copper demand in top consumer
China, while stimulus measures and reopening of economies in the West have also
boosted investor sentiment. China’s continued strong imports and relatively
flat global exchange stocks reinforce the positive optics.</font></span><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 1;"> </span></p>Hanishhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12987158992865046451noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8028862296867005238.post-53509041556227404602020-06-02T08:49:00.000+05:302020-06-02T08:49:37.718+05:30NBHC’s Final Rabi Crop Estimates for 2019-20<p style="margin: 0cm 0cm 4pt; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US"><font face="arial" size="2">The rainfall during the months of
June-September was at 10 per cent above average. Rainfall over the country as a
whole during the SW monsoon season (June-September), which is the principal
rainy season of the country, was normal (110 per cent of LPA). The 2019
northeast monsoon season (October-December) rainfall over the country as a
whole was above normal (129 per cent of LPA). Live storage in 123 major
reservoirs as on 21 May 2020 was 60.73 BCM as against 36.15 BCM on the same day
last year (21 May 2019) and 37.58 BCM of normal (average of the last 10 years)
storage. Current year’s storage is 168 per cent of last year’s storage and 162
per cent of last 10 year’s average storage. Unseasonal rains, thunderstorms and
snowfall across certain pockets in the country in Feb- March had led to damage of
standing Rabi crops - wheat, mustard and gram as over 60 per cent precipitation
were concentrated in north-western and central India. In India, Rabi harvesting
starts in March in Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Maharashtra and in
April in Punjab, Haryana and Uttar Pradesh. The Government announcement of the
lockdown came right in the middle of this rabi harvesting season. They did
exempt farm activities from the lockdown but the shortage of labour and lack of
transport facilities is expected to impact the rabi crop adversely. Keeping in
consideration the large-scale post monsoon developments and the sowing reports
from various parts of the country, NBHC Pvt. Ltd. has come up with its <b>Final
Rabi Crop Estimates for 2019-20</b>.<o:p></o:p></font></span></p>
<p style="margin: 0cm 0cm 4pt; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US"><font face="arial" size="2">In our first estimate (<b>First Rabi Crop
Estimates for 2019-20 – 11<sup>th</sup> February 2019</b>) we had
broadly concluded that in the year 2019-20, the production of total pulses and
oilseeds are expected to decline by 2.22 per cent and 13.48 per cent over 2018-19.
In the current assessment, the Pulses and oil seed have marginally pushed
themselves further in the negative region with an expected decline of 4.58 per
cent and 6.58 per cent over the last estimate. <o:p></o:p></font></span></p>
<p style="margin: 0cm 0cm 4pt; text-align: justify;"><font face="arial" size="2"><span lang="EN-US">Wheat production is expected to fall further
by 3.12 per cent over last estimate as delayed harvesting has led to a fall in
yield and further delays in procurement exposes the crop to untimely rains but would be still higher by 5.61 per
cent over last year mainly because of increase MSP coupled with the surplus
monsoon and post-monsoon rain in October boosted soil moisture levels. Rice
production is expected to increase marginally by 3.17 per cent over last
estimate amidst reports of
higher yield in Telangana but would still be lower by 25.67 per cent over last
year </span><span lang="EN-US">owing to marginal shift in farmer’s focus to
pulses & wheat. </span><span lang="EN-US">Maize is expected to decline further by 2.17 per cent </span><span lang="EN-US">over last estimate leading to overall fall in
production by 0.99 per cent over last year.<span style="color: red;"> </span>Jowar production is expected to improved
further by 2.62 per cent over last estimate leading to overall increase
in production by about 23.57 per cent over last year.<span style="color: red;"> <o:p></o:p></span></span></font></p>
<p style="margin: 0cm 0cm 4pt; text-align: justify;"><font face="arial" size="2"><span lang="EN-US"><a href="https://www.business-standard.com/topic/pulses" target="_blank"><span style="color: windowtext; text-decoration-line: none;">Pulses </span></a></span><span lang="EN-US">production is projected to drop further by 4.58 per cent over
last estimate, which is 2.22 per cent lower than last year’s production mainly
due to 10.85 per cent drop in the gram production, which constitutes about 70
per cent of the total Rabi Pulses. Gram production is expected to decline further
4.87 per cent over the last estimate mainly due to fall in Madhya Pradesh as
lot of area under gram was diverted for wheat cultivation. Urad, Masoor and
Field Pea are also expected to decline by 2.00 per cent, 2.17 per cent and 5.00
per cent respectively over the last estimate. <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;"><div style="text-align: justify;"><font face="arial" size="2"><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;">Total </span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;"><a href="https://www.business-standard.com/topic/oilseeds" target="_blank"><span style="color: windowtext; line-height: 115%; text-decoration-line: none;">oilseeds </span></a></span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;">production is estimated to be 9.50 million MT, which is about 6.58 per cent
lower than the last estimate mainly because of fall in Mustard and groundnut
production, leading to overall fall in production by 13.48 per cent over last
year. Mustard and Groundnut production is expected to decline 7.00 per cent and
5.00 per cent respectively over last estimate.</span></font></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><font face="arial" size="2"><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></font></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><p style="margin: 0cm 0cm 4pt; text-align: justify;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;">The table below shows the details
of the Final Estimate for the 2019-20 Rabi Crop:</span></b></p><p style="margin: 0cm 0cm 4pt; text-align: justify;"><b></b></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgKiBXUqpsriRL72im7pP04uyPOT9LVz-Eewk52Ngaz_ayIMSWGAKh8IpwhalQAv3_nkPcNCACkZcRBoevq4ezqD5wvZLSxe3CfgGBNl0DIpb4gY4w56zpn2vYiA65UP96diaForM912tM/" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="485" data-original-width="671" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgKiBXUqpsriRL72im7pP04uyPOT9LVz-Eewk52Ngaz_ayIMSWGAKh8IpwhalQAv3_nkPcNCACkZcRBoevq4ezqD5wvZLSxe3CfgGBNl0DIpb4gY4w56zpn2vYiA65UP96diaForM912tM/s320/Final+Rabi+Crop+Estimate+2020.jpg" width="320" /></a></b></div><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;"><br /></span></b><p></p><p style="margin: 0cm 0cm 4pt; text-align: justify;"><b></b></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b><br /></b></div><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;"><br /></span></b><p></p><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;"><br /></span></b><p></p><font face="arial" size="2"><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;"></span></font></div></span>Hanishhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12987158992865046451noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8028862296867005238.post-33701043833641784062020-05-19T14:32:00.001+05:302020-05-19T14:32:44.188+05:30Copper Market Struggles to Survive Amidst Sliding Economies<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 4.0pt; text-align: justify;">
Global copper market saw a mild recovery amidst renewed aggression by
the Chinese participants, though the global sentiments continues plummet as
nations gear up to fight COVID-19 with increased focus. In the face of the
continued pandemic, and resulting country lockdowns, copper has been hit by
headwinds and tailwinds at the same time. On one side producers have halted
production, adding some support, yet on the other hand demand has dried up as
the world hunkers down to prevent further spread and save lives. As increasing
number of cases are being reported around the world, major market indices have shrunk
by over than 20 per cent from their highs in last 2 months and have entered in
the bearish territory/region. The fear of economic recession is looming large
on several economies. Since the development of vaccine against COVID-19 looks
as a distant reality (may take a minimum of 8-10 months) I feel that both
supply and demand chain disruptions arising for goods and services are likely
to continue for much longer. The effects of Covid-19 on global businesses are
also becoming visible, with companies scaling down operations, asking employees
to work home, slashing production targets. Sectors such as aviation, tourism,
hospitality have almost come to a grinding halt. Moreover, as the coronavirus
pandemic is seeing an accelerating situation in emerging markets, a third round
of hits to the global economy is shaping up and emerging market economies will
encounter tougher challenges.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 4.0pt; text-align: justify;">
Unlike developed countries, which have relatively complete and balanced
economic systems, emerging market economies are not very sound in terms of an
economic ecology and mechanism, and would suffer more damage. Some emerging
markets have already seen economic slowdowns due to long-term economic
structural problems. The pandemic has weighed on the contractions and have even
drawn them into crisis. Wider impacts are likely to be visible in the emerging
markets as the pace of spread of COVID-19 is likely to derail several
economies. The countries may even see economic stagnations amid quarantines and
lockdowns as they have a higher dependency on the global market, especially for
energy and export-oriented economies. The turbulence of financial markets and
the rise of financing cost are likely to further trigger a series of debt
defaults, or even lead to a regional debt crisis. As a result, emerging markets
would be hit harder, lose more, and even generate a chain reaction under the
new phase of the pandemic. Emerging markets and developing countries contributed
47.8 per cent to the global economic growth in 2018, and if the emerging
economies slide into a crisis, the global economy will take a longer period of
time to resume.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 4.0pt; text-align: justify;">
The copper markets have improved by about 12 per cent in the last
month, despite a rapidly deteriorating outlook for global economic growth and
industrial metals demand. Copper's recent rally has ploughed on through April,
shrugging off an IMF projection of -3 per cent GDP growth in 2020, and a
collapse in crude oil prices. Offering some support to copper prices in recent
weeks have been mine production cuts as the Covid-19 crisis has deepened in key
production region South America. The global copper market is headed for a
surplus of between 200,000-300,000 tonnes in 2020. Australia-based mining group
MMG's copper production fell by 24 per cent year on year in the first quarter
on disruption to output at its Peruvian mine Las Bambas. Elsewhere, Canadian
miner First Quantum Minerals this week revised down its 2020 production
guidance for its Cobre Panama copper mine, which has been shut down because of
Covid-19. The global copper market is headed for a surplus of between
200,000-300,000 tonnes in 2020. China's refined copper production fell in March
as producers cut output during the outbreak. Domestic output fell to its lowest
level since May 2019 to 771,000 MT in March, down by 2.5 per cent from a year
earlier, according to data this week from China's national bureau of
statistics. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 4.0pt; text-align: justify;">
The supply side response so far has been conservative relative to the
expected drop in demand, and nowhere near big enough to preserve a supply
deficit forecast by some at the start of the year, before Covid-19 halted
swathes of the world's copper-consuming manufacturing base, including the
automotive sector. Projections of the drop in global demand for copper this
year vary widely, but forecasts made before the IMF's projection of contracting
GDP included a fall in demand of 5-6 per cent, against a drop in supply of
around 1 per cent. The slackening global copper demand showed the depth of the
downturn in manufacturing since Covid-19 struck. April purchasing managers
index readings for manufacturing in Europe dropped to 20-year lows, with
equivalent US readings at 11-year lows. Automotive sector, which is one of the
largest copper consuming industries, is going through its worst phase. There have
been huge drops in car sales have occurred across Europe - with new car sales
in France in April down by 88.8 per cent on the year, the Italian market falling
by 97.5 per cent from last year and the Italian market falling by 97.3 per
cent.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 4.0pt; text-align: justify;">
Economic activity in the euro zone all but ground to a halt this month
as the coronavirus forced governments around the world to impose lockdowns and
firms to down tools and shut their businesses. The spread of the pandemic has
resulted in down scaling of economic activities in all major affected countries
for the past 3 months leading to economic slowdown and financial crises. As per
studies, the worst has not yet been seen in the data, prices of copper are
expected to come down further in the short term. Many countries have now
resorted to judicious easing of restrictions. Major countries resorting to
phase wise controlled easing of restrictions are US, Italy, Spain, Portugal,
Belgium and India as the longer the industries / economic activities are
closed, the more would be the economic pain. Central banks pouring money over
these markets and strong industrial demand in China seem to still underpin
prices at these levels. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 4.0pt; text-align: justify;">
Saving lives has become a priority for all the countries in the world
and the slowing down or decelerating economic growth has taken a back seat.
But, the negative growth in the national income of several countries has forced
controlled opening up of the economic activities to generate resources to fight
the battle against COVID-19 pandemic. China is an important country for copper
prices because it is the largest buyer. Still, there are signs that the demand
for copper and copper-made products will decline since most of China’s trading
partners are now struggling. Moreover, the IMF warned that the world would go
through the worst recession since the Great Depression. This is a negative for
copper prices, which tend to do well when the economy is booming.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 4.0pt; text-align: justify;">
The short-term outlook is one where these rallies run out of steam
because we are still faced with the biggest demand shock in living memory it
will take a long time to reset itself. Overall, the long term demand continues
be robust. The increased demand for the uninterruptable and well-founded supply
of electricity along with rising concern to reduce energy transmission and
distribution lines would certainly lead to increased demand of copper. The
positive signs surrounding pandemic is the restart of economic activity in
China which is likely to kick start the economic churning of the global
economic wheel. <o:p></o:p></div>
<br /></div>
Hanishhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12987158992865046451noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8028862296867005238.post-45085979498094326932020-03-14T12:40:00.000+05:302020-03-14T12:40:45.606+05:30Copper Finds no Respite as Coronavirus Aggravates Downside Risk<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">An economic disaster just four decades ago, China now touches the lives of billions of people around the world. The growth in China is significant for industrial giants, auto industry, renewable energy, and countless others who depend on its economic might. The current situation of corona epidemic is worryingly unique, because unlike the SARS episode of 2002-2003, the world is considerably more integrated. NO sector has been left out from being significantly effected from this epidemic be it. The coronavirus is spreading across the world and is now causing governments to shut down schools and public gatherings, which mirror the enforced shutdown of factories all over China. Disruption of China's logistics and supply chains due to restrictions on travel and impacts on labour due to quarantines and fears of contagion have resulted in a marked slowing of industrial activity generally within the country. The resulting lower demand for raw materials among manufacturers and the construction industry, along with the disruption of road transport and congestion at Chinese ports, are having a strong impact on inbound and outbound trade. The Chinese construction sector accounted for 48 per cent of the country's refined copper demand in 2019. Construction activity in the country has remained largely suspended due to the coronavirus, with work unlikely to resume in the near term, significantly affecting the demand of copper. Copper consumption has been impacted by reductions in manpower at manufacturing plants. Even though rates of infection in China appear to be falling and the government has ordered a general return to work, there have been outbreaks of the disease in countries outside China, including Japan, South Korea, Italy, Singapore and Iran, since the middle of February. This has raised fears of a global pandemic and increased concern that the virus could have a significant, longer-term negative impact on economic growth globally.</span></div>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><div style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
Apart from the coronavirus thereat, the global economic slowdown is also taking the toll on the copper market. The truce in US – China tariff conflict had infused positivity. The long term demand scenario still looks very convincing. There is significant rise in the cars and small automobiles demand as owing to the recent corona epidemic people especially in China as they are avoiding public transport network to keep away from infection. </div>
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<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
The supply Preliminary data indicates that world mine production declined by about 0.6 per cent in the first eleven months of 2019, with concentrate production down by 0.5 per cent and solvent extraction-electro-winning (SX-EW) declining by around 1 per cent. Reduced output in major copper mine producing countries more than offset growth in other countries. Production in Chile, the world’s biggest copper mine producing country, declined by 1 per cent mainly due to lower copper head grades and few production disruptions. Indonesian output declined by 46 per cent as a consequence of the transition of the country’s major two copper mines to different ore zones leading to temporarily reduced output levels. Ø After growth of 13 per cent in 2018, aggregated production in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Zambia declined by 3 per cent as consequence of temporary suspensions at SX-EW mines, reductions in planned production and operational constraints. Production in a number of copper mine producing countries, including Australia, China, Mexico, Peru and the United States increased mainly due to a recovery from constrained output in 2018. Panama started producing copper in March 2019, with the commissioning of the Cobre de Panama mine, and was the most significant contributor to world mine production growth over the first eleven months of 2019. On a regional basis, mine production is estimated to have increased by around 4 per cent in North America, 1 per cent in Latin America and 4 per cent in Oceania but declined by 6 per cent in Asia, 2 per cent in Africa and 1 per cent in Europe.</div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
Preliminary data indicates that world refined production declined by about 0.5 per cent in the first eleven months of 2019 with primary production (electrolytic and electro-winning) falling by 0.9 per cent and secondary production (from scrap) increasing by 1.6 per cent. World refined production growth was constrained as a consequence of a 25 per cent decrease in Chilean electrolytic refined output due to temporary smelter shutdowns whilst undergoing upgrades to comply with new environmental regulations. Total Chilean refined production (including Electro-winning) declined by 9 per cent. A 38 per cent decrease in Zambian refined output due to power supply interruptions, smelter outages and temporary shutdowns and the introduction on 1st January 2019 of a 5 per cent custom duty on copper concentrate imports that constrained smelter feed. Reduced output in Japan, Peru and United States and in several EU countries, due to smelter maintenance shutdowns and operational constrains. However, these reductions were partially offset by growth in Chinese output and by increases in countries recovering from production constraints in 2018 such as Australia, Brazil, Iran and Poland. On a regional basis, refined output is estimated to have increased in Asia (2.5 per cent) and in Oceania (10 per cent) but declined, in North America (-2 per cent), in Latin America (-7 per cent), in Africa (-10 per cent) and in Europe (-2 per cent).</div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
Chinese smelters, facing high inventories of sulphuric acid and logistical problems resulting from measures aimed at halting the spread of the virus, have been forced to cut production in recent weeks. China’s own refined copper output is projected to grow by 3.8 per cent to 9.3 million MT year and its exports by 10.8 per cent to 350,000 MT. That leaves China’s refined copper market in a surplus of 650,000 tonnes in 2020, narrowed from 936,000 tonnes last year. Copper concentrate consumption, meanwhile, is expected to rise by 6.6 per cent on a copper-contained basis to 7.25 million tonnes, with domestic production holding steady at 1.56 million tonnes.</div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
The demand prospect though is subdued owing to spread of the epidemic has shown no signs of slackening for the long term. The economic activity has slowed down significantly in China (which consumes over 40 per cent of the global copper) but is certain that it would bounce back with increased vigour once the coronavirus spread is contained and cured. China has sufficient capacity of semis in other provinces that a prolonged suspension in Hubei will not limit the recovery of copper demand. In addition, most semis fabricators usually run at reduced utilisation rates until the end of the second week after Chinese New Year. Therefore, the direct impact of the delayed restarts will be less than one-week of Chinese copper demand. However, the indirect impact and the downside risks on demand could be much larger. The actual impact on the demand could be assessed based on how long the coronavirus is expected to stay virulent. If China loses one month of copper demand, this means a reduction of more than one million tonnes of refined copper demand. However, some of the loss in copper demand, especially the demand from consumer durables, should be able to be clawed back later in the year if the health crisis dissipates in the first quarter. On the other hand, demand loss from infrastructure and construction sector will be harder to make-up; best case scenario is that it would be delayed to later this year. As a result, we believe that there is now a significant downside risk to our forecast of 0.9 per cent Chinese total copper consumption growth for 2020.</div>
</span></div>
Hanishhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12987158992865046451noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8028862296867005238.post-32940668839305476022020-03-04T18:20:00.000+05:302020-03-04T18:20:09.717+05:30Indian Pulses Gearing up to Walk The Last Mile<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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Hanishhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12987158992865046451noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8028862296867005238.post-85534161415273539302020-02-24T16:53:00.000+05:302020-02-24T16:53:08.667+05:30NBHC’s First Rabi Crop Estimates for 2019-20 <div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<div style="background: white; margin-bottom: 6.0pt; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 6.0pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The northeast
monsoon, between October and December, India witnessed a 30 per cent surplus in
total rainfall. The nation’s monsoon rainfall during the months of
June-September was at 10 per cent above average. Rainfall over the country as a
whole during the SW monsoon season (June-September), which is the principal
rainy season of the country, was normal (110 per cent of LPA). Further, the
downpour continued through the months of October and November, thereby
increasing the water table. The 2019 northeast monsoon season
(October-December) rainfall over the country as a whole was above normal (129
per cent of LPA). The seasonal rainfall during the northeast monsoon season
over the core region of the south peninsula (comprising of 5 subdivisions viz.
Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema, Tamil Nadu & Puducherry, South
Interior Karnataka and Kerala), was normal (109 per cent of LPA). The total
live storage in 123 important reservoirs in different parts of the country as
on 6<sup>th</sup> February 2020 was 114.821 BCM ( 67 per cent of the live
storage capacity at FRL ).The current year's storage is nearly 157 per cent of
last year's storage and 146 per cent of the average of last ten years. Availability
of good soil moisture across major Rabi producing states has also laid the
foundation for laid down a strong platform for good production. Keeping in
consideration the large scale post monsoon developments and the sowing reports
from various parts of the country, NBHC Pvt. Ltd. has come up with its 1<sup>st</sup>
Rabi Crop Estimates for 2019-20. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="background: white; margin-bottom: 6.0pt; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 6.0pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">As per our
study, the total Rabi Cereals production for the year 2019-20 is expected to increase
by 4.52 per cent to 134.23 Million MT from 128.43 million MT in 2018-19. Wheat area
is expected increase by 12.03 per cent to 33.44 Million Ha and its production is
expected to improve by 9.01 per cent to 111.40 Million MT due to favourable
weather conditions, improved soil moisture conditions and incentivised increase
in MSP to 1925 per quintal from 1840 per quintal given last year. Rabi Rice
acreage is recorded lower by 23.24 per cent at 2.61 million Ha against 3.40 million
Ha last year and its production is expected to decrease significantly by 27.96
per cent to 10.30 million MT from 14.29 million MT in last year owing to
marginal shift in farmer’s focus to pulses & wheat. Total coarse cereals production
is expected to increase by 4.92 per cent to 12.54 million MT in 2019-20 mainly
due to increase in production of Jowar (2.43 million MT), maize (8.28 million
MT) and barley (1.83 million MT). Jowar acreage is improved significantly by 19.12
per cent while the acreage of maize and barley are expected to show a marginal
surge of 6.45 per cent and 6.85 per cent, respectively.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="background: white; margin-bottom: 6.0pt; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 6.0pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The most
affected is the cultivation of pulses, particularly Moong and Urad due to
erratic rains and also sought a removal of import duties and caps on peas.
The Moong acreage is expected to decline significantly by 26.32 per cent to
0.56 million Ha from 0.76 million Ha in last year and production is expected to
decline by 26.38 per cent to 0.38 million MT from 0.51 million MT in last year.
Urad acreage is expected to decline by 21.44 per cent to 0.74 million Ha from 0.94
million hectares in last year and production is expected to decreased by 20.17
per cent to 0.56 million MT from 0.70 million MT in last year. Overall, the
pulses acreage is expected to increase by 1.86 per cent to 15.92 million Ha
from 15.63 million Ha in last year and the production is expected to decline by
2.47 per cent at 15.17 Million MT despite Gram acreage and production is likely
to increase by 10.14 per cent (10.64 million Ha) and 7.90 per cent (10.93
million MT) respectively. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">However total oilseeds acreage is expected to decline marginally by 0.87
per cent at 7.97 million Ha from 8.04 million Ha in last year and production is
expected to decline by 7.39 per cent to 10.17 million MT from 10.98 million MT
in last year. Mustard acreage is expected to decline by 0.29 per cent to 6.92
million Ha and its production is expected to decline by 6.92 per cent to 8.69 million
MT from 9.34 million MT in last year. Groundnut and Sunflower production is
estimated to be lower by 8.87 per cent (1.12 million MT) and 39.24 per cent
(0.08 million MT) respectively.</span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhAFMM0V6X6_2RAxTbQnjN969cAqSzbNcUsDLsATeSnTgPjUHg7DgvoWtCb00JLjeMA1KVNjHYoNFMX7VpHXDBdBui6RFjtzkl2HzTDKTd2dnbx_XTMLXDeNlTWDhg0XzjEzhLZxc3ObuM/s1600/Rabi+Estimate+2020.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="448" data-original-width="523" height="341" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhAFMM0V6X6_2RAxTbQnjN969cAqSzbNcUsDLsATeSnTgPjUHg7DgvoWtCb00JLjeMA1KVNjHYoNFMX7VpHXDBdBui6RFjtzkl2HzTDKTd2dnbx_XTMLXDeNlTWDhg0XzjEzhLZxc3ObuM/s400/Rabi+Estimate+2020.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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Hanishhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12987158992865046451noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8028862296867005238.post-49089390028252379782020-02-05T15:13:00.000+05:302020-02-05T15:13:53.429+05:30Copper Investment Sentiments Grappled by Coronavirus<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The global economic barometer, which was already struggling over the economic uncertainties, fell off the cliff as coronavirus gripped over 30 Chinese provinces forcing announcing of highest level of public health emergency, bringing almost all economic activity from consumption to logistics to staggering low levels. Investors have started deserting raw materials around the world over fears about the economic fallout from the virus. Currently, in the affected region about 90 per cent of copper smelting, 60 per cent of steel production, 65 per cent of oil refining and 40 per cent of coal output have been halted plummeting the overall sentiments in the global copper and other raw material market. Apart from the current medical emergency, the factors that have pressured the market all throughout 2019 are the trade war between US & China, the global manufacturing recession, dipping of manufacturing PMIs in most developed and emerging markets and the mini trade war between Japan and South Korea. </span></div>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><div style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
Except for the Medical Emergency in China, things had started to show improvement with the recently announced Phase I of the US and China trade deal, the recent election in the UK, where conservatives had a resounding victory, the passing of United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement (USMCA) and the Fed’s commitment to lower interest rates. Another catalyst will be the planned upgrades by Codelco, the state-owned copper mine in Chile. The company is expected to accelerate these upgrades in 2020 if it gets the much-needed funds from the government. As a result, upgrades could lead to disruptions in its mines. This is important because Codelco is a major copper producer that produced more than 1.81 million MT from its mines. Another supply risk for copper production will be from the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). In recent years, political risks in the African country have been increasing this had led Glencore to close down its Mutanda mine. Similar problems are also happening in neighbouring Zambia, which is another important producer. As per analysis, world mine production declined by about 0.3 per cent in the first ten months of 2019, with concentrate production remaining essentially unchanged and solvent extraction-electro-winning (SX-EW) declines by 1 per cent. The reduced output in major producing countries is more than offset growth in other countries. Production in Chile, the world’s biggest copper mine producing country, declined by 0.2 per cent mainly due to lower copper head grades and some production disruptions that occurred early in the year. Indonesian output declined by 47 per cent as a consequence of the transition of the country’s major two mines to different ore zones leading to temporarily reduced output levels. After growth of 13 per cent in 2018, aggregated production in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Zambia declined by 3 per cent as consequence of temporary suspensions at SX-EW mines, reductions in planned production and operational constraints. Production in a number of copper mine producing countries, including Australia, China, Mexico, Peru and the United States increased mainly due to a recovery from constrained output in 2018. Panama started producing copper in March 2019, with the commissioning of the Cobre de Panama mine, and was the most significant contributor to world mine production growth over the first ten months of 2019. On a regional basis, mine production is estimated to have increased by around 4 per cent in North America, 1.5 per cent in Latin America and 5 per cent in Oceania but declined by 6 per cent in Asia, 2 per cent in Africa and 2 per cent in Europe. world refined production declined by about 0.3 per cent in the first ten months of 2019 with primary production (electrolytic and electro-winning) falling by 0.7 per cent and secondary production (from scrap) increasing by 1.7 per cent. World refined production growth was constrained as a consequence of a 27 per cent decrease in Chilean electrolytic refined output due to temporary smelter shutdowns whilst undergoing upgrades to comply with new environmental regulations. Total Chilean refined production (including Electro-winning) declined by 10 per cent. A 37 per cent decrease in Zambian refined output due to power supply interruptions, smelter outages and temporary shutdowns and the introduction on 1st January 2019 of a 5 per cent custom duty on copper concentrate imports that constrained smelter feed. Reduced output has been reported in Japan, Peru, the United States and a few European countries due to smelter maintenance shutdowns. However, these reductions were partially offset by growth in Chinese output and by increases in countries recovering from production constraints in 2018 such as Australia, Brazil, Iran and Poland. On a regional basis, refined output is estimated to have increased in Asia (3 per cent) and in Oceania (10 per cent) but declined, in North America (-2 per cent), in Latin America (-7 per cent), in Africa (-9.5 per cent) and in Europe (-2 per cent).</div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
These fundamental factors, in addition to the strong geopolitical headwinds across the global landscape, will no doubt lead to another year of volatile prices. In the absence of a major economic downturn, copper’s supportive fundamentals should keep price risk skewed to the upside. On the positive side, The Chinese government recently announced that it has no plans to further reduce the subsidy on EVs in 2020. It is believed that the decision to keep the subsidy will help to support EV sales, production and related copper demand in 2020. This change in approach to EVs in China is in line with developments in other regions. In Europe, the likes of Germany and Norway continue to ramp up EV-related incentives, supporting copper consumption in the region. In consultation with German automakers, the so-called “Environmental Bonus” incentive has been raised to a maximum of €6,000 for battery EVs priced up to €40,000. In the US, some States have extended subsidy offerings, while others are introducing similar incentive programs. In the other markets, the Chinese government plans to end the subsidy on newly approved onshore and offshore wind projects in 2021 and 2022, respectively. In the US, tax incentives for new solar power installations have started to wind down this year and the subsidy on wind power generation will also begin to decrease next year. s a result, we believe that demand for copper will be brought forward in both China and the US in 2020, as developers rush to install new capacity ahead of these changes. </div>
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<div style="text-align: justify;">
Moreover, The Chinese government recently approved new standards, beginning in July 2020 that will re-categorise some copper scrap as “renewable copper material. The new threshold for copper content of imported copper scrap has been set at 97 per cent and 56 per cent for brass scrap. This threshold is noticeably above the average copper content for copper and brass scrap imported in 2019. In addition to the changes in scrap-related policies in China, rising costs to upgrade scrap ahead of export to China will likely incentivise more secondary consumption capability to be built in scrap generating and/or processing countries.</div>
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<div style="text-align: justify;">
The outbreak of the Coronavirus in China replaced the trade war as the leading concern weighing on the Chinese economy. As the number of cases rise and pop up in other countries around the world, the threat to both the Chinese and global economic landscapes is growing. The Chinese government has addressed the risk of the spreading virus but it had already caused 170 deaths with over 7,700 reported cases. In the near term, the rising potential for a global pandemic with China as ground zero for the health emergency has caused the price of copper to tank.</div>
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Hanishhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12987158992865046451noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8028862296867005238.post-76205000088250906592020-01-09T13:32:00.000+05:302020-01-09T13:32:11.792+05:30NBHC’s Final Kharif Crop Estimates for 2019-20<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt;">The kharif season of 2019-20 had been very challenging as the monsoon had
been initially late, erratic and subsequently very heavy and devastating. The
monsoon rains had been 110 per cent over its (Long term Average) LPA with
maximum in Central India followed by Southern Peninsula, Northwest and
Northeast respectively. The </span><span style="font-size: 13.3333px;">widespread</span><span style="font-size: 10pt;"> floods was seen in 13 states between late
July and early August 2019, due to incessant rains caused significant dent in
the acreage and production of several kharif crops. As per our assessment, sowing
rice and pulses cultivation has been most hit in West Bengal, Bihar, Jharkhand,
Assam, Chhattisgarh, Odisha, Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan and Maharashtra. After
the flood receded the sowing recovered and things started to approach to
normalcy, though the entire kharif season has been delayed by about 20 to 25
days. The real deterrent for the kharif crop came with the post monsoon rains
which was 32 per cent excess and the maximum impact was felt in Northwest
region (121 per cent excess) and the central India region (64 per cent excess).
After making due considerations to the above fact and other climatological and
environmental conditions, we have come up with our revised estimate for the
kharif crop for the season 2019-20. <o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10pt;">In our first estimate (<b>First Kharif Crop Estimates for 2019-20 – 5<sup>th</sup>
October 2019</b>) we had broadly concluded that in the year 2019-20, the
production of coarse grains, pulses, Oil Seeds and Sugarcane are expected to
decline by 24.99 per cent, 41.43 per cent, 42.99 per cent and 12.32 per cent
over 2018-19, respectively. In the current assessment, the coarse grains,
pulses, oil seeds and sugarcane have marginally pushed themselves further in
the negative region with an expected decline of 14.14 per cent, 14.09 per cent,
53.31 per cent and 11.07 per cent over the last estimate, respectively. </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">For the year 2019-20, rice
production has expected to decline marginally by 8.21 per cent over last year
and decline marginally by 3.19 per cent over last estimate. Maize is expected
to decline significantly by about 11.86 per cent over last year and 8.97 per
cent over last estimate. In the minor cereals, Jowar is expected to improve by 1.07
per cent over last year while Bajra is expected to decline by 1.98 per cent
over last year.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; text-decoration-line: none;">Pulses </span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10pt;">production is projected to drop significantly in Moong by 27.38
per cent over last year and decline marginally by 5.77 per cent over last
estimate, in Urad 18.38 per cent over last year and 2.77 per cent over last estimate
and also in Tur by 10.47 per cent over last year and 5.54 over last estimate
mainly due to crop damaged in Rajasthan, Maharashtra, Karnataka and Madhya
Pradesh. Thus for the current year one can expect a significant shortfall in
overall kharif pulses availability owing to long spell of unseasonal rainfalls
in October and November.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10pt;">Total </span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; text-decoration-line: none;">oilseeds </span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10pt;">(Soybean, Groundnut, Castor Seed,
Sunflower, Sesame and Niger Seed) production is estimated to be 16218.06 thousand
MT, which is 23.78 per cent declined than the last year production 21277.00 thousand
MT. Soybean production is expected to
decline significantly by 32.27 per cent over last year and 12.93 per cent over
last estimate and Groundnut production is expected decline marginally by 9.57
per cent over last year and 4.31 per cent over last estimate due to excess
rains in Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra towards the fag end of monsoon rains.
Other Oil Seeds decline by sunflower 30.61 per cent over last year and 22.38
per cent over last estimate and Sesame 21.48 per cent over last year and 10.71
per cent over last estimate. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">In the cash crop section, Sugarcane output in
India drop significantly by 21.98 per cent over last year and decline 11.07 per
cent over last estimate. Cotton is expected to increase marginally by 3.28 per
cent over last year owing to favourable growing conditions.</span><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"> </span></span></div>
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Hanishhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12987158992865046451noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8028862296867005238.post-8528318494773119712020-01-07T11:14:00.000+05:302020-01-07T14:35:32.886+05:30Copper Continues to Reel under Extreme Global Economic Pressures<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">For the entire year of 2019 copper market experienced the fallout effect of the Sino US trade war which showed varying facets as and when the two interested parties came close to an agreement and then parted ways. The US-China trade war has had a huge impact on copper. The copper prices have taken a beating since the start of the trade conflict. The falling GDP numbers, strengthening dollar, declining demand and increasing concentrate supplies and stable mine supplies: all kept copper under tremendous pressure and engulfed in gloom of uncertainties. Earlier, the truce in the trade war was expected in mid – December with the implementation of Phase One of the trade deal between the US and China. The deal is still somewhat nebulous and no-one seems sure whether there will be a "Phase Two" as there has been a general feeling that the US –China Trade War has almost peaked up and is bound to subside in the coming months. Thus the uncertainty still continues and the current US aggressive stand in the Middle East especially with Iran & Iraq is also adding more anxiety to the existing unpredicted situations. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">The trade deal developments and its impact on the global economy is likely to remain the trendsetter of Copper prices in 2020. A successful deal would boost global economic activity and improve the demand for base metals and vice versa move might leady the major economies in grip of extended slowdown. Perhaps the biggest sigh of relief came in December when the United States and China said they would sign a deal this month that puts at least a temporary stop to their tit-for-tat trade war. Instead of tariff increases on Chinese goods, which Mr. Trump had threatened to institute Dec. 15, he and President Xi Jinping have agreed to a pact, set to be signed Jan. 15, that rolls back some tariffs on both sides and includes Chinese pledges to buy more American goods, take various steps to protect intellectual property, and open its financial sector to foreigners.</span></div>
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Supply of the copper has been greatly affected by several ecological as well as political issues. The political situation in South America in Chile and neighbouring nations deteriorated and the public took to the streets to demonstrate. Chile, largely maintained production and operated normally through early November at the height of the unrest, though some mining companies had warned that protests, strikes, and road blockades were taking a toll. Preliminary data indicates that world mine production declined by about 0.4 per cent in the first nine months of 2019, with concentrate production remaining essentially unchanged and solvent extraction-electro-winning (SX-EW) declining by 1 per cent. Reduced output in major producing countries had more than offset growth in other countries. Production in Chile, the world’s biggest copper mine producing country, declined by 0.3 per cent mainly due to lower copper head grades and some production disruptions that occurred early in the year. Indonesian output declined by 50 per cent as a consequence of the transition of the country’s major two mines to different ore zones leading to temporarily reduced output levels. After growth of 13 per cent in 2018, aggregated production in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Zambia declined by 3 per cent as consequence of temporary suspensions at SX-EW mines, reductions in planned production and operational constraints. Production in a number of major copper mine producing countries, including Australia, China, Mexico, Peru and the United States increased due to improved grades and a recovery from constrained output in 2018. Panama started producing copper in March 2019, with the commissioning of the Cobre de Panama mine, and was the biggest contributor to world mine production growth in the first nine months of 2019. Preliminary data indicates that world refined production remained essentially unchanged in the first nine months of 2019 with primary production (electrolytic and electro-winning) declining by 0.4 per cent and secondary production (from scrap) increasing by 1.6 per cent. World refined production growth was constrained owing to several constraints. A 30 per cent decrease in Chilean electrolytic refined output due to temporary smelter shutdowns whilst undergoing upgrades to comply with new environmental regulations. Total Chilean refined production (including Electro-winning) declined by 11 per cent, a 35 per cent decrease in Zambian refined output due to power supply interruptions, smelter outages and temporary shutdown and the introduction on 1st January 2019 of a 5 per cent custom duty on copper concentrate imports constraining smelter feed. Reduction in output in Japan, Peru, the United States and a few European countries due to shutdowns of smelter owing to maintenance. However, these reductions were offset by growth in Chinese output and by increases in countries recovering from production constraints in 2018 such as Australia, Brazil, Iran and Poland. On a regional basis, refined output is estimated to have increased in Asia (3.5 per cent) and in Oceania (11 per cent) but declined, in North America (-2.5 per cent), in Latin America (-8 per cent), in Africa (-9 per cent) and in Europe (-2.5 per cent).</div>
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There are a number of compelling reasons to expect a major bull market in copper. For a start we have seen continuing robust consumption from China while mine supply has stagnated. Secondly, demand for copper for use in Solar and Wind alternative electricity generation is expected to grow steadily in coming years, especially Solar, and these technologies require the use of a lot of copper. A transition to cleaner energy will take centre stage in metals over the coming years, requiring significantly larger amounts of copper, nickel and other metals. Thirdly, due to onerous new legislation, electric vehicles are expected to take over from petrol driven vehicles on a grand scale as part of a master plan to eventually eliminate private transport for the masses, meaning the lower and most of the middle class, and all these millions of transitional electric vehicles will create enormous demand for copper. It is most likely that when the shift from petrol to electric propulsion occurs, it will still result in a massive increase in demand for copper, as the number of electric vehicles in existence will explode in the interim phase before the prices of electric vehicles are ramped up. With the easing trade tensions can boost global GDP growth. The International Monetary Fund also expects emerging markets to grow at 4.6% in 2020 from 3.9% in 2019. If growth in China and India accelerates, the demand for copper will ensure that the commodity continues to move higher. This will be positive for FCX as EBITDA margin will expand along with growth in free cash flows leading to overall recovery in the global markets.</div>
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Thus, trade disruption remains the number one risk that could threaten the economic recovery and increase the chance of a recession in late 2020. We still believe that both United States and China have incentives to improve trade relations. President Donald Trump wants to keep stock markets buoyant ahead of his 2020 re-election campaign, which means he needs to lift the economic uncertainty that trade tensions pose. However, the unpredictability of the current US administration makes it difficult to guarantee that trade talks will continue moving in the right direction. Any re-escalation in trade tensions may cause fatal blow to economic activity and global equity markets. Another risk that could lead to a similar scenario is a central bank policy error. After the Fed tightened financial conditions in 2018, we saw one of the most turbulent sell-offs in financial markets in years. So, central banks in 2020 will have little room for error.</div>
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Hanishhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12987158992865046451noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8028862296867005238.post-81966401161388066292019-10-07T14:26:00.003+05:302019-10-07T14:26:50.105+05:30NBHC’s First Kharif Crop Estimates for 2019-20<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="background: white;">As the arrival of monsoon delayed
over a week, the withdrawal has also delayed this year. Met experts believe
that the withdrawal is likely to commence only by the end of September. In June
this year, the delay in the arrival of monsoon and the subsequent impact of
cyclone Vayu resulted in the worst performance of monsoon in the last five
years. However, bountiful rains in July and August made up for a substantial
deficit of 33 per cent. Now, the 2019 monsoon figures are the best in the last
five years with over 5 per cent excess rainfall. India received a total of
931.6 mm rainfall from 1<sup>st</sup> June to 30<sup>th</sup> September as
against the normal of 869.4 mm. Heavy rains in August and September caused
floods across Rajasthan, Maharashtra, Karnataka and Kerala. Based on the above
conditions we fell that the total Kharif crop production scenario for the year 2018-19
would turn out to be as explained in table given below.</span><span style="background: white;"> <span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="background: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Total Rice is expected to show marginal
improvements in area by 2.80 per cent because of farmers are shifted 20 per
cent – 25 per cent crop area from non-basmati rice to basmati rice in Punjab on
higher export demand of last year. Receding waters in flood affected regions of
Bihar, Odisha and Karnataka have helped in recovering area under paddy
cultivation but delayed in sowing we are expecting lower yield by 4.82 per
cent. To save water for our future generations, Department of Agriculture and
Farmers welfare, Haryana launched a new pilot scheme. The scheme is for
replacement of paddy by Maize and other crops in 7 dark zone brocks with a
target to diversify around 5oooo Ha area from this season.</span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> </span><span style="background: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> A smaller crop last year pushed India to
import maize after a gap of two years; acreage is expected to increase by 7.17
per cent this year but still we are expecting a 10.64 per cent lower crop size because
of the widespread fall armyworm infestation which is already showing signs of
aggravations. Area and production of Jowar is expected to fall by 4.79 per cent
and 3.70 per cent respectively and Bajra area is expected to increase by 2.47
per cent despite decline in production by 5.83 per cent.</span></div>
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<span style="color: windowtext; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">In the pulses sector, acreages under Tur and Urad exceeded
last year’s levels after widespread rains in early August boosted the sowing,
the government has begun to dispose of stocks. Tur production is expected to be
low by 2.78 per cent. Urad area is expected to increase by 0.36 per cent but
production is expected to decline significantly by 15.73 per cent. We expect
the area under Moong to decrease by 4.66 per cent whereas the production is
expected sharply lower by 22.93 per cent mainly due to flooding of fields in
Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra & Rajasthan.</span></div>
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<span style="background: white; color: windowtext;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">In oilseeds, Castor area is expected to increase by 5.32 per
cent and likely to see significant increase in production by 12.25 per cent due
to good prices of castor in domestic Mandis. The decline in production is expected
to the tune of 11.00 per cent, 7.63 per cent, 1.65 per cent and 0.76 per cent for
Sesamum, Sunflower, Groundnut and Niger Seed respectively. Soybean acreage
expected to improve by 5.68 per cent but the production is expected
significantly lowered by 21.97 per cent due to heavy rains and widespread
flooding in major growing area which has diminished hope of normal crop in the
major soybean growing regions.</span></span></div>
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<span style="background: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 115%;">In this current monsoon
season, the cash crop section is likely to show an overall neutral scenario as
area for Sugarcane is expected up by 14.32 per cent but decline in production
by 12.32 per cent because of farmers from major sugarcane growing belts are
shifted sugarcane crop to other crop as government gives incentives to
encourage farmers to grow crops </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 115%;"><a href="https://www.financialexpress.com/economy/farmers-may-get-rs-6000-per-acre-to-shun-sugarcane-farming/1700188/"><span lang="EN-IN" style="background: white; color: windowtext; line-height: 115%; text-decoration-line: none;">other than sugar cane</span></a></span><span style="background: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 115%;">. Among the potential
recommendations is an incentive of 6,000 rupees ($121) an acre for farmers who
stop growing sugarcane, especially in the major sugarcane growing states such
as Uttar Pradesh. Cotton area and production is expected up by 4.32 per cent and
7.45 per cent respectively.</span></div>
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Hanishhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12987158992865046451noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8028862296867005238.post-64367211574488752182019-06-10T15:39:00.000+05:302019-06-10T15:39:41.081+05:30Resurgence of Sino-US Trade War Dampens Positivity in Global Economy<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<span style="font-family: Times, "Times New Roman", serif;">The new tangent drawn between the US and China has practically brought the entire global copper economy on the brink of inevitable crises as China accounts for nearly half of global copper consumption estimated at 24 million tonnes and the United States accounts for only about 8 per cent. The macro economic factors have successfully prevailed over the copper market sentiments even if the S&D fundamentals are strongly favouring surge in prices. US President Donald Trump's threat to increase tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods on Friday has raised the risk of an escalation in the trade spat between Washington and Beijing. Washington has accused Beijing of reneging on substantial commitments made during months of negotiations aimed at ending their trade war, counter to which fresh negative signals have come up on China’s threats to use rare earth minerals as a reaction in trade war pushed metal’s price sharply lower. In the situation that the US is imposing tariffs and China retaliates by signals of possible ban on the export of rare earths, there are little chances for any upside action, but rather turning focus fully to the downside. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">In the current development, the tone in the continuing trade dispute between the US and China became increasingly harsh in May after a lack of any kind of breakthrough in the on-going talks. As a result, the United States raised its import duties from 10 to 25 per cent on Chinese goods worth about US$ 200 billion. This further increased the risks for global economic development, which didn’t go unnoticed on the copper market and placed additional pressure on the copper price.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">In the year 2018, major supplying companies responded to higher demand, and the year- on – year production grew by almost 7 per cent and their revenues were up by 12 per cent. However, 2019 is not looking as good as producers are forecasting a fall in output due to declining grades, higher costs, and the lengthy processes of bringing new projects online at a time when inventory levels are at ten-year lows. The ICSG expects global refined copper output of around 24.8 million MT in 2019, with visible consumption of 25.0 million MT worldwide. This would lead to a slight deficit of 189,000 MT on the global refined copper market in 2019. For 2020, the ICSG forecasts a slightly higher deficit of 250,000 MT and predicts an output of 25.1 million MT and consumption of 25.3 million MT. Reuters also released its latest analyst survey on the copper market in May. The survey result indicates that the global refined copper market will register a deficit of 205,500 MT in 2019, which will then fall to 172,000 MT in 2020. Currently, the preliminary data indicates that world mine production declined by about 1.8 per cent in the first two months of 2019, with concentrate production declining by 1.3 per cent and solvent extraction-electro-winning (SX-EW) by 4 per cent: Although a few countries experienced growth, this was largely offset by declines in two major producing countries, namely Chile and Indonesia. Production in Chile, the world’s biggest copper mine producing country, declined by 6 per cent mainly due to lower copper head grades. Indonesian concentrate production declined by 50 per cent primarily as a consequence of the transition of the country’s major two mines to different ore zones leading to temporarily reduced output levels. After aggregated growth of 13 per cent in 2018, production in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Zambia increased by 1.3 per cent in the first two months of 2019 as reduced production at some mines partially off-set ramp-up output at other operations. Production in Peru (the world’s second largest copper mine producing country), Australia, China and Mongolia increased due to improved grades and recovery from constrained output in 2018. On a regional basis, mine production is estimated to have increased by around 2 per cent in Africa, 1 per cent in North America and 5 per cent in Oceania but declined by 3 per cent in Asia, 4 per cent in Latin America and 3 per cent in Europe.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">Preliminary data also indicates that world refined production remained essentially unchanged in the first two months of 2019 with primary production (electrolytic and electro-winning) declining by around 0.6 per cent and secondary production (from scrap) increasing by 0.3 per cent. The main contributor to the growth in world refined production was China due to the continued expansion of Chinese capacity. Other countries recovering from production constraints in 2018 such as Australia, Brazil and Poland also contributed to growth. However, overall growth was partially offset by a 15 per cent decline in Chilean output which was mainly due to temporary smelter shutdowns whilst undergoing upgrades to comply with new environmental regulations. Production in India continued to be negatively impacted by the shutdown of Vedanta’s Tuticorin smelter and declined by 45 per cent. Aggregated refined production in the DRC and Zambia has declined by 7 per cent. On a regional basis, refined output is estimated to have increased Asia (2 per cent) and in Oceania (25 per cent) while declining in Africa (-8 per cent), in the Americas (-8 per cent) and remaining essentially unchanged in Europe. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">In the recycling market, there is still uncertainty regarding the impacts of the stricter scrap import bans in China. Beijing is likely to introduce a system with import licenses for high-quality scrap (so-called Category 6) starting July 1. To import these qualities, companies have to prove to the Ministry of Ecology and Environment that they have the necessary capacities to process the copper scrap volumes into refined copper or semi-finished products such as wire. This could influence the global copper scrap streams in the short to medium term. The situation is already been aggravated by the fact that China has announced that it would intensify environmental inspections in the future. Amidst, development in China, Malaysia has become an important buyer of copper scrap with low copper contents that was previously imported directly into China and now has become the new hub of dumping of the low grade copper scraps. Seeing the declining grade of copper scrap supplies, Malaysia has resorted to introduction of intensified inspections. As a result, some shipments have even been turned away, and other ships have been prevented from unloading their freights, mostly containing scraps of copper cable scrap and old engines, in the harbour. This step has led European copper scrap market to loose significantly by lower demand from Chinese companies and its lack of access in the Malaysian market.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">The demand scenarios still remains robust and consistently in support of increased positivity in the overall copper market long term scenario. If we consider the demand for electrical cars (only in UK), which is harbouring 31.5 million cars on the UK roads – the shift from traditional fuel based to electric system would require a minimum of 207,900 MT of cobalt (just under twice the annual global production), 264,600 MT of lithium carbonate (LCE) (three quarters the world's production), 7,200 MT of neodymium and dysprosium (nearly the entire world production of neodymium) and 2,362,500 MT of copper (more than half the world's production). Thus, if such is the potential of one single country, the global transformation would inevitably result in significant surge in demand way beyond the capacity of the miners currently active in the world. Thus, in spite of the short term instability in investment scenario created by the Sino – US trade conflict; the long term investor should continue to have great confidence in the market.</span></div>
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Hanishhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12987158992865046451noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8028862296867005238.post-42630507249543560432019-05-28T16:44:00.000+05:302019-05-28T16:44:10.255+05:30Copper Shapes up for Good Long Term Upsurge<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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Copper continues to trade range bound on short term fundamentals, though the long term fundamentals continue to be robust providing increased underlying strength to the prices and not allowing it to slump drastically. The global economic uncertainties are been increasing as the final truce between US and China tariff dispute is yet to be achieved. US has escalated the trade war with China by announcing plans to hike the tariff imposed on $200 bn of Chinese goods from 10 percent to 25 percent and has further threatened to impose tariffs on all Chinese trade with America, a move that could further destabilize relations between the two economic powers. The U.S. imports goods from China totalling $539.5 billion and the trade deficit stood at $419.2 billion in 2018, according to the U.S. Trade Representative. If Trump follows through with his threats, virtually all goods imported from China to the U.S. would face some sort of tariff. The move is likely to impact more than 5000 products made by Chinese farms and factories, from fresh and frozen food to chemicals, textiles, metalwork, building materials, electronics, and consumer goods. The escalation of the dispute has been recently being blamed for a slowdown in global growth.</div>
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Supply disruptions, including rains in Chile and protests in Peru, kept the market in deficit, even as demand for so-called concentrate or the semi-processed ore eased up as a result of a four-month stoppage at two of Codelco’s four smelters. New smelter capacity in China has been coming up owing to the new copper emission standards being implemented in China, which is expected to increase the competition for concentrates. The case for a supply-driven deficit in copper this year is strengthened by an announcement from Glencore Plc that it would cut capacity by half at its Mutanda plant in Congo, a two-month road blockage at MMG Ltd.’s Las Bambas mine in Peru and rains in northern Chile at the beginning of the year. The supply shortages to worsen in the second half of 2019, with less copper concentrate in the market and more smelting capacity.</div>
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The latest supply details reveal that world mine production is estimated to have remained essentially unchanged in January 2019 compared to January 2018, with concentrate production remaining flat and solvent extraction-electro-winning increasing by 0.4 percent. Although a few countries experienced strong growth, this was largely partially offset by declines in two major producing countries, namely Chile and Indonesia. Production in Chile, the world’s biggest copper mine producing country, declined by 4 percent mainly due to lower copper head grades. Indonesian concentrate production declined by 45 percent primarily as a consequence of the transition of the country’s major two mines to different ore zones leading to temporarily reduced output levels. Production in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Zambia continues to ramp-up mainly as a result of the restart of temporarily closed capacity in both countries. Production in Peru (the world’s second-largest copper mine producing country), Australia, China and Mongolia also increased due to improved grades or recovery from the constrained output in 2018. On a regional basis, mine production is estimated to have increased by around 10 percent in Africa and 5 percent in Oceania but declined by 4 percent in Asia and 0.7 percent in Latin America and remained essentially unchanged in Europe. Preliminary data indicates that world refined production is estimated to have increased by 3 percent in January 2019 with primary production (electrolytic and electro-winning) increasing by around 3.1 percent and secondary production (from the scrap) by 1.9 percent. The main contributor to the growth in world refined production was China due to its continued expansion of capacity. Other countries recovering from production constraints in 2018 such as Australia and Brazil also contributed to growth. A rise in electro-winning (SX-EW) output in the DRC also contributed to higher world refined production. However, overall growth was partially offset by a 14 percent decline in Chilean output impacted by temporary smelter shutdowns while undergoing upgrades to comply with the new environmental regulations. Production in India continues to be negatively impacted by the shutdown of Vedanta’s Tuticorin smelter. On a regional basis, refined output is estimated to have increased in Africa (7 percent), Asia (6 percent), Europe (2 percent) and Oceania (25 percent) while declining by 7.5 percent in the Americas.</div>
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Despite the slowdown in the global economy and disruption to the Chinese economy which could probably trigger retaliatory action by Beijing, the fundamental demand for copper has been unshaken owing to expansion plans of several global countries. Nearly 28 million tonnes of copper are used annually. According to the World Energy Outlook, growing electrification means electricity is expanding to sectors previously confined to fossil fuels, including vehicles and heating and cooling systems. Countries continue to pivot away from conventional energy sources, supported by massive private sector investment into low-carbon energy. 2018 marked the fifth consecutive year clean-energy investment exceeded $300 billion. 2019 is expected to be close to reaching $300 billion for the sixth successive year. China remains at the heart of this energy revolution as the world’s largest producer, consumer and investor in renewable energy. The country is upgrading its capacities in renewable energy production and consumption and accounts for 36 percent of all renewable energy growth worldwide. During the first half of 2018, China’s hydro, nuclear, wind, solar and other non-fossil energy systems generated more than 25 percent of its overall power supply. China will remain a leader in electrification in 2019 as its Thirteenth Five-Year Plan prioritizes renewable energy development. As expected, in 2019, the copper industry will be monitoring proper investment initiatives to finance on-the-ground activities in developing countries of critical importance, as they represent one-billion new electricity consumers by 2030. Since the technology already exists, assisting these countries and their growing middle class will ensure a low-carbon and sustainable solution.</div>
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Thus, sustainable copper production is becoming more prominent in the minds of consumers. The global visible inventory in the form of combined stocks held by the London Metal Exchange, Comex and the Shanghai Futures Exchange have nearly halved from a year ago to around 500,000 tonnes. Thus, 2019 is shaping up to be the year for accountability. The global industry is planning for substantial growth in the next decade thanks to an expected boom in production of electric vehicles, which use twice as much copper as internal combustion engines. Automakers are vowing to produce all-electric fleets. Consumer electronics companies, auto manufacturers and major retailers, among others, are going green through their certified sourcing programs and are working increasingly close to their supply chains to help achieve sustainability goals. A lack of new supply and steady demand this year for the metal, widely used in power and construction, should keep the 25-million-tonne market in a slight supply deficit and support prices. The current year presents major opportunities for clean energy and the copper industry. Copper has a key role to play in the development and roll out of new technologies leading to a more sustainable economy, such as EVs and global electrification. With outstanding conductivity, copper significantly enhances the efficiency of electrification, making it an indispensable component in developing renewable energy. The copper industry is also at the forefront of the move to more responsible supply chains and recycling. This shift is relevant for all downstream businesses and consumers who are reliant on copper every time they use an iPhone.</div>
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Hanishhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12987158992865046451noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8028862296867005238.post-54033514319931375702019-03-11T15:11:00.000+05:302019-03-11T15:11:45.923+05:30Decisive Positivity is Likely to Prevail in Copper for 2019<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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Amidst reports of easing economic tariff war between US & China (Extension on imposition of fresh tariff beyond March), expectation of decline in supply and continued robust demand prospect despite marginal slowdown of Chinese growth numbers is expected to keep the copper prices buoyant for entire 2019. The US dollar’s performance played a significant role in commodity price direction throughout 2018 and is likely to do so again this year. The US dollar should continue to weaken as the US Federal Reserve holds off on rate increases. Not only will this support commodity prices, including copper, but it will also be good for emerging markets. Moreover, the global market is keenly concentrating on the reports that Chinese government’s is likely to revisit its policy regarding scrap copper. In 2018, tightness in scrap was partly attributable to the upward revision of refined consumption numbers. Despite the potential upside again in 2019, any slowdown in the Chinese economy could cap that country's requirements. </div>
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The disruptions to the supply side are they mine or smelter stoppages will provide upside support to prices, given that the copper market is not flush with visible inventories, which are currently at levels last seen back in January 2015. Following a near-3 per cent increase in mine production during 2018 to 20.7 million MT; it is expected that this rate would slowdown in 2019, with growth of only 0.3 per cent after applying a 5 per cent disruption allowance. Supply increases in 2018 were driven by higher contributions from existing base case mines; between them, Grasberg and Escondida produced around 430 thousand MT more last year, close to 65 per cent of the global net increase on 2017. Despite the start-up of greenfield projects such as Cobre Panama, Mirador and Carrapateena in 2019, their contribution is likely to be be more than offset by lower production from existing mines, and by Grasberg in particular. This Indonesian operation is expected to deliver less than half the amount of copper that it produced in 2018, as it transitions from the end of open pit mining to additional contributions from underground block caving. </div>
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On the supply front the concentrate market is also expected to be tightened through the 2019. There are concerns that smelters may continue to falter through the first months of 2019. While there are risks that the issues at Pasar, Aurubis and Gresik are not resolved, there are also uncertainties in Chile regarding new air quality laws, introduced on 12th December, 2018. All Chilean copper smelters now have to comply with the latest environmental regulation. Codelco’s Chuquicamata and Potrerillos now look set to be under extended maintenance in 2019. We understand the downtime at Potrerillos could be anywhere up to 6 months. The introduction of a 5% duty on concentrates imported into Zambia could materially reduce copper production, particularly at KCM's Nchanga smelter and NFC's Chambishi operation, both of whom rely on concentrates from the DRC to bolster blister/anode production. Thus the Supply side is expected to be squeezed up leading to extended support to the copper prices. Globally, the refined production is estimated to have increased by 1.5 per cent in the first eleven months of 2018 with primary production (electrolytic and electro-winning) increasing by around 2 per cent and secondary production (from scrap) remaining flat. World growth was constrained by an unusually high frequency of smelter disruptions and temporary shutdowns for technical upgrades/modernizations. The main contributor to the growth in world refined production was China due to its continued expansion of capacity. A rise of 2 per cent in Chile was a consequence of a recovery from 2017 when output was negatively impacted by a series of smelter maintenance shutdowns. However, despite this increase, Chilean output over the first eleven months of 2018 was still 6 per cent lower than the same period of 2016. Japanese output rose by 6.5 per cent recovering from reduced output in 2017 when a major smelter undertook extended maintenance. Increases in electro-winning (SX-EW) output in the DRC and Zambia also contributed to world refined production growth. Overall growth was partially offset by a 34 per cent decline in India’s output due to the shutdown of Vedanta’s Tuticorin smelter in April and declines in Indonesia, the Philippines and Poland as a consequence of maintenance shutdowns and operational issues. On a regional basis, refined output is estimated to have increased in Africa (10 per cent), Asia (1.5 per cent) and Latin America (2 per cent) whilst remaining more or less unchanged in Europe and Oceania and declining in North America (-2.5 per cent).</div>
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Copper scrap market is already showing signs of tightening and is heading for one of the biggest uncertainties for the Chinese copper market in 2019. Category 6 copper scrap will be reclassified as a ‘restricted import good’ as of 1st July this year, which means that importers will need to obtain an import quota from the government. As we go to print, details are still to be confirmed as to whether some category 6 copper scrap components will be exempt, and also how limited import quotas will be during second half of 2019. However, the impact on scrap supply in China will be negative regardless of the details. It is expected that demand for refined copper as a share of total consumption in China will be proportionately higher. Refined copper supply from secondary producers is likely to be lower resulting in increased import of cathode, blister and/or concentrates by China. Thus, much would be depended on how refineries in the rest of world will be able to raise their production given the current issues around Indian and Chilean smelters and refineries. </div>
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On the Positive side, China has elevated the adoption of new “Phase 6” emissions standards under its anti-pollution “Blue Sky Defence” action plan. Just as we’re seeing in parts of Europe right now, China will soon begin banning the production of the most polluting diesel engines. This is likely to provide significant boost to the electric vehicles (EVs). Currently, China accounts for 60 per cent of global EV sales and it is expected that in about a decade, the Asian country will account for nearly 40 per cent of the global EV market, followed by Europe (26 per cent) and the U.S. (20 per cent). At the same time, strong grid investment driven by the government's stimulus package, as well as improving housing completions driven by positive housing starts since 2016, will offer some support to growth. Fresh incentive programs for both the auto and home appliance sectors are in discussion according to a recent statement from the government. This may yet offer some support to total copper consumption within both of these sectors. Moreover, Chinese the world’s largest copper consumer’s GDP growth is not falling, but is simply slightly behind expectations on a percentage basis which is not expected to pull down the overall demand which has been ever improving in quantum. But, going forward, even if we see GDP growth drop significantly on a percentage basis, there’s still a lot of copper that needs to go to China just to maintain their current demand.</div>
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Hanishhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12987158992865046451noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8028862296867005238.post-58851292222451144592019-02-19T16:49:00.000+05:302019-02-19T16:49:17.931+05:30NBHC’s First Rabi Crop Estimates for 2018-19<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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The northeast monsoon, between October and December, over the country had been “Substantially below Normal”. The cumulative rainfall in the country during the post-monsoon season i.e. 01st October, 2018 to 31st December, 2018 has been 44 per cent lower than LPA. Rainfall in the four broad geographical divisions of the country during the above period have been lower than LPA by 51 per cent each in Central India & East & North East India, 45 per cent in North West India and 36 per cent in South Peninsula. This coupled with the drought in some parts have impacted Rabi sowing and could aggravate the distress in the farm sector. The southwest monsoon was almost 22 per cent below normal in the Marathwada region of Maharashtra, while in north interior Karnataka, the deficit was almost 29 per cent and 37 per cent below normal in Rayalseema. In Maharashtra, Vidarbha reported 88 per cent post-monsoon rainfall deficiency, which is the highest in the state. Similarly, drought affected regions like Marathwada received 84 per cent less rainfall, followed by central Maharashtra at 64 per cent deficiency and Konkan and Goa at 56 per cent rainfall deficiency in the post-monsoon period. Keeping in consideration the large scale post monsoon deficiency and the sowing reports from various parts of the country, NBHC Pvt. Ltd. Has come up with its 1st Rabi Crop Estimates for 2018-19. </div>
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As per our study, the total Rabi Cereals production for the year 2018-19 is expected to be lower by 9.91 per cent to 115.49 Million MT and Wheat is expected to show a decline in area by 2.54 per cent to 29.66 Million Ha and production by 4.99 per cent to 94.72 Million MT owing to scanty and inequitable distribution of rainfall in major growing areas. Rabi Rice acreage is recorded lower by 14.17 per cent and its production is expected to decrease significantly by 28.91 per cent due to major rice-growing states West Bengal, Odisha, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh are lagging sowing area. Total coarse cereals are expected to fall by 6.9 per cent to 12.1 million MT in 2018-19. This is due to a fall in production of Jowar, maize and barley. Jowar has seen the biggest fall in sowing, with around 2.52 million hectares, a fall of 18.82 per cent over last year. Area sown under maize and barley fell by 5.67 per cent and 2.62 per cent, respectively.</div>
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The most affected is the cultivation of pulses, particularly Gram or Chana. The acreage under Gram is down in major growing States of Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh and Karnataka, which is reeling a drought. The Gram acreage has decrease by 9.92 per cent to 9.70 million hectares from 10.76 million hectares in last year. Overall, the pulses have shown decrease by 6.75 per cent and the production is expected at 14.48 Million MT despite Kulthi acreage and production increase significantly by 29.84 per cent and 31.23 per cent respectively. Masoor production is estimated 1.76 per cent lower at 1.71 Million MT as against 1.74 during 2017-18.</div>
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However oilseeds are the only crop which managed to retain last year’s level in terms of acreage with less than one per cent increase. A surge in mustard cultivation in Rajasthan has been critical in taking the total oilseeds sowing area to about 8.04 million hectares, which was 0.71 per cent higher than that in 2017-18. Mustard acreage is expected to increase by 5.03 per cent at 7.02 million hectares likewise production is expected to increase by 4.46 per cent to 8.69 million MT. Groundnut, Sunflower and safflower production for 2018-19 has been estimated to be lower at 0.97 million MT.</div>
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Hanishhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12987158992865046451noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8028862296867005238.post-32751546206804626812019-02-07T12:31:00.000+05:302019-02-07T12:31:51.343+05:30Copper’s Strong Fundamentals Finally Gives in to Bulls<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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Copper’s dramatic price slide began from about mid-year of 2018. The strong dollar, rising US interest rates and concern over the escalating trade dispute between the USA and China weighed heavily on copper. Currently, the dollar has started showing signs of cooling, the FED rate hikes have been stabilised and both parties have agreed to enter a period of negotiation that would normalise trade deal within 90 days from the beginning of 2019. An on-going trade dispute between the U.S. and China could send the global economy into a recession, therefore the odds favour a trade deal between the nations, as it is in the best interests of both countries. The global copper demand is expected to continue on the rise in 2019. According to the latest analysis the market is under supplied with demand set to increase from 23.6 million MT in 2018 to 29.8 million MT by 2027 - at 2.6 per cent annual growth. Thus, we can see the increased positivity in the various factors as 2019 continues to roll on. </div>
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Global copper mine production is expected to process with steady growth over the next few years, supported by markets with low operating costs and improving copper prices. In terms of tonnage, global copper output is likely to climb from 20.4 million MT in 2018 to 28.1 million MT by 2027, thus depicting a marginal shortfall in supplies over the years. Moreover, Declining ore grades for copper, continued lack of investment in new mines and the time required to bring new discoveries to production will constrain metal availability and, ultimately, the metal sector’s ability to meet growing demand from automakers for battery electric vehicle production. World mine production is estimated to have increased by about 2.4 per cent in the first ten months of 2018, with concentrate production rising by 2.3 per cent and solvent extraction-electro-winning (SX-EW) by 2.6 per cent. The increase in world mine production of about 390,000 MT copper was principally due to constrained output in 2017 (mainly in Chile, Indonesia and the DRC). Production in Chile, the world’s biggest copper mine producing country; increased by 6 per cent primarily because production in February/March 2017 was restricted by a strike at Escondida (the world’s biggest copper mine). Indonesian output increased by 19 per cent due to the fact that comparative output in 2017 was negatively affected by a temporary ban on concentrate exports that started in January and ended in April. SX-EW production in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) increased by 12 per cent and Zambian mine output increased by 8 per cent as a result of the restart of temporarily closed capacity in both countries. Although no major supply disruptions occurred in the first ten months of this year, overall growth was partially offset by lower output in Canada (-11 per cent) and the United States (-3.5 per cent). After a strong increase over the last few years due to new and expanded capacity, output in Peru (the world’s second largest copper mine producing country) stabilized. On a regional basis, mine production is estimated to have increased by around 8 per cent in Africa, 3.5 per cent in Latin America, 2 per cent in Asia and 10 per cent in Oceania but declined by 5 per cent in North America and remained essentially unchanged in Europe. For the year 2019, The Grasberg mine production is forecast to drop nearly 40 per cent as the operation is retooled from open-pit to underground and the overall normalisation of supply is expected only by 2022. Copper output growth from Australia is decelerating as no major new mine is expected till 2020.</div>
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World refined production is estimated to have increased by 1.2 per cent in the first ten months of 2018 with primary production (electrolytic and electro-winning) remaining essentially unchanged and secondary production (from scrap) increasing by 5 per cent. World growth was constrained by an unusually high frequency of smelter disruptions and temporary shutdowns for technical upgrades/modernizations. The main contributor to the growth in world refined production was China due to its continued expansion of capacity. A rise of 2 per cent in Chile was a consequence of a recovery from 2017 when output was negatively impacted by a series of smelter maintenance shutdowns. However, despite this increase, Chilean output over the first ten months of 2018 was 6 per cent lower than the same period of 2016. Production in Indonesia and Japan was also higher in the first ten months of 2018, recovering from reduced output in 2017. Increases in electro-winning (SX-EW) output in the DRC and Zambia also contributed to world refined production growth. Overall growth was partially offset by a 34 per cent decline in India’s output due to the shutdown of Vedanta’s Tuticorin smelter in April and declines in Australia, the Philippines, Poland, and the United States as a consequence of maintenance shutdowns and operational issues. On a regional basis, refined output is estimated to have increased in Africa (10 per cent), Asia (1 per cent) and Latin America (2 per cent) whilst remaining essentially unchanged in Europe and Oceania and declining in North America (-4 per cent).</div>
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Amidst all, the development in Vedanta is also a crucial happening as far as Indian market is concerned. The National Green Tribunal in India ruled in December that the local government’s closing of Vedanta’s Tuticorin copper smelter in the southern Indian province of Tamil Nadu was invalid. Tamil Nadu’s Pollution Control Board was called on to provide relevant permit for the smelter’s continued operation within three weeks. Tuticorin has a capacity of about 400,000 MT per year.</div>
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In terms of demand, China in 2018 consumed 12,262 TMFT of copper up 4 per cent from 2017 and now representing 52 per cent of world supplies. China’s expansive; multi-billion-dollar Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) traverses several continents – Southeast Asia to Eastern Europe and Africa – and encompasses major projects in 71 countries. In their pursuit for a global network, it is thought that Chinese firms have secured more than $340 Billion in construction contracts. China remains the world’s biggest copper consumer as it continues its massive infrastructure build. The health of its economy therefore remains an important factor in the outlook for copper. This is why all eyes are currently on progress with respect to trade negotiations underway between the U.S. and China. Global demand increased 0.9 per cent in 2018. Excluding China, global demand would have actually been down about 1 per cent. India is the other rapidly growing copper consumer with demand forecast to grow 12 per cent in 2019 and expected to double by 2026, to a still relatively modest 5 per cent of global demand. Other important countries and regions for copper demand including Europe, U.S., Japan, and South Korea are expected to have relatively flat growth in the coming years.</div>
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In the recent positive development, China and the US said this month progress had been made in resolving some of the thorniest issues in their trade war, prompting optimism that the stand-off may be ended. The inventories of copper are at a 10-year low and are set to fall further in the second quarter of this year which is enough to keep the copper market in a deficit of 200,000 MT in 2019 and 2020. Furthermore, an import ban for copper scrap with high impurity levels (called category 7 scrap) will go into effect in 2019 leading to a roughly 250,000 MT (copper content) decrease in Chinese copper scrap imports of this quality. All these factors are keenly reiterating the fact that fundamentals are highly stalked in favour of bulls and long term investors should stay invested for the entire year of 2019 as well as 2020.</div>
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Hanishhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12987158992865046451noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8028862296867005238.post-34476675885604607912019-02-02T10:50:00.000+05:302019-02-02T10:50:15.708+05:30NBHC’s Final Kharif Crop Estimates for 2018-19<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;">The year 2018-19 has
indicated that below average and erratic distribution of monsoon rains. The
season (June-September) rainfall over the country as a whole was 91 per cent of
its long period average (LPA). Seasonal rainfalls over Northwest India, Central
India, South Peninsula and Northeast (NE) India were 98 per cent, 93 per cent,
98 per cent and 76 per cent of respective LPA. Out of the total 36
meteorological subdivisions, 23 subdivisions constituting 68 per cent of the
total area of the country received normal season rainfall, 1 subdivision
received excess rainfall (1per cent of the total area), and 12 subdivisions (31
per cent of the total area) received deficient season rainfall. Monthly
rainfall over the country as a whole was 95 per cent of LPA in June, 94 per
cent of LPA in July, 92 per cent of LPA in August, and 76 per cent of LPA in
September. Major states affected by this monsoon pattern were Bihar, Gujarat,
Uttar Pradesh (West), Madhya Pradesh, Jharkhand , Telangana, Karnataka and
Maharashtra. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;">In our first estimate (<b>First Kharif Crop Estimates for 2018-19 – 25<sup>th</sup>
September 2018</b>) we had broadly concluded that in the year 2018-19, the
production of coarse grains, pulses and cotton are expected to decline by 9.78
per cent, 2.68 per cent and 4.57 per cent over 2017-18. In the current
assessment, the Pulses and oil seed have marginally pushed themselves further in
the negative region with an expected decline of 2.68 per cent and 5.36 per cent
over the last estimate. <b><o:p></o:p></b></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;">The crop wise analysis
reveals that in the group of cereals, the rice crop was least affected by the
irregularity in monsoon as it is grown mostly in well irrigated areas. For the
year 2018-19, rice production has expected to decline marginally by 0.73 per
cent over last year and decline marginally by 1.91 per cent over last estimate.
It is to be noted that the Basmati rice production is expected to fall decline
by about 9.24 per cent but this short fall is being compensated by the increase
in the Non-Basmati rice. Maize is expected to decline significantly by about 10.41
per cent over last year. The decline in the sowing area in Karnataka &
Telangana was the main cause for the decline in production. In the minor
cereals, Small Millets, Ragi and Bajra production is expected to improve by 6.15
per cent, 18.40 per cent and 6.29 per cent respectively while Jowar is expected
to decline by 10.59 per cent over last year.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US"><a href="https://www.business-standard.com/topic/pulses" target="_blank"><span style="color: black; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; text-decoration-line: none;">Pulses </span></a></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;">production is projected to drop marginally to 9.10 million MT from
9.35 million MT last year due to the fall in Urad output by 10.11 per cent
mainly due to the shift in acreage towards </span><span lang="EN-US"><a href="https://www.business-standard.com/topic/soybean" target="_blank"><span style="color: black; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; text-decoration-line: none;">soybean </span></a></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;">in some parts of Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;">Total </span><span lang="EN-US"><a href="https://www.business-standard.com/topic/oilseeds" target="_blank"><span style="color: black; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; text-decoration-line: none;">oilseeds </span></a></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;">production is estimated to be 19.87
million MT, which is 5.36 per cent declined than the last year production 21.00
million MT mainly due to falling groundnut (22.11 per cent), castor (27.16 per
cent) and sesame (3.21 per cent) production in major producing states. Other
oilseed such as Niger expected to increase by 11.83 per cent. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;">In the cash crop section,
cotton is been seriously affected fluctuating weather conditions. The annual
cotton output in India might drop 4.57 per cent due to inadequate rainfall in
the top two producing states Maharashtra and Gujarat has cut crop yields,
potentially reducing exports from the world's leading producer.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 115%;">Sugarcane is expected to increase marginally by 3.25
per cent on increased sowing and lastly Jute & Mesta is expected to improve
marginally by 5.11 per cent amidst favourable weather conditions.</span><br />
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span>
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 115%;">The table below shows the details of the final estimate for the 2018-19
Kharif crop:</span><br />
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEib_SX2DYyOosAzlDKSJ8HMpipo4oB30Mt5KUzY1JrLGWkvHi9ITFsFtAgwnFzLdTG2UxGU_tD0Pa2mXfaUiF68gHf2TAWLIIPpWeJnJqFSOdncmvvCyJAqJYG9Ew3RuEYBDxywEGIdVVc/s1600/Final+Kharif+crop+Estimates.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="506" data-original-width="576" height="560" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEib_SX2DYyOosAzlDKSJ8HMpipo4oB30Mt5KUzY1JrLGWkvHi9ITFsFtAgwnFzLdTG2UxGU_tD0Pa2mXfaUiF68gHf2TAWLIIPpWeJnJqFSOdncmvvCyJAqJYG9Ew3RuEYBDxywEGIdVVc/s640/Final+Kharif+crop+Estimates.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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Hanishhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12987158992865046451noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8028862296867005238.post-264846239042575292019-01-07T16:05:00.000+05:302019-01-07T16:05:46.900+05:30Increased Positivity in Economic Scenario likely to Boost Copper in 2019<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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Between January 2016 and the end of 2017, prices soared 72 per cent as China’s pace of growth picked up and the rest of the world economy boomed. For 2018, however, copper prices had fallen 18 per cent by late November amid concerns over trade wars, U.S. fiscal and monetary policy, Brexit, the Italian debt situation and a possible slowdown in China. The first half of the year faired positive and stable but once the trade war burst onto the scene it smothered all positive expectations and market witnessed significant slump. The slowing of the Chinese demand is adding pressure on the copper market. Copper Market is currently feeling the pressure of increased economic uncertainty and lack of concrete demand direction. The supply of copper in 2018 is ever on the rise as the copper majors’ <a href="https://investingnews.com/daily/resource-investing/base-metals-investing/copper-investing/copper-price-dives-escondida-averts-strike/">smoothly negotiated wages</a> at large scale mines putting the large scale disruptions at bay for the entire year and the repeat of 2017’s supply disruption was averted. An increasing flow of copper emanating from the world’s mines makes copper especially sensitive to any slowdown in demand growth. The coming year of 2019 is expected to be more promising with expected supply increase of over 1.5 per cent and increased demand of scrap in the global market. </div>
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The global supply of copper is expected to slowdown in 2019, as production at the Grasberg Copper Mine in Indonesia, operated by Freeport McMoran and Rio Tinto is expected to fall by more than 50 per cent next year as the transitions in underground operations is likely to happen. The transition is expected to reduce copper supply in the market by about 300,000 metric tons, or 1.5 per cent of annual copper mine production. BHP Billiton Ltd’s Escondida Copper Mine in Chile is also expected to produce less copper this year. Currently, the World mine production is estimated to have increased by about 2.8 per cent in the first nine month of 2018, with concentrate production rising by 2.7 per cent and solvent extraction-electro-winning (SX-EW) by 3 per cent. The increase in world mine production of about 410,000 MT copper was mainly due to constrained output in 2017 (mainly in Chile, Indonesia and the DRC). The production in Chile, the world’s biggest copper mine producing country, increased by 7 per cent primarily because production in February/March 2017 was restricted by a strike at Escondida (the world’s biggest copper mine) and also because there has been an improvement in Codelco’s production levels in 2018. The Indonesian output increased by 23 per cent because comparative output in 2017 was negatively affected by a temporary ban on concentrate exports that started in January and ended in April. The SX-EW production in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) increased by 11 per cent and Zambian mine output increased by 9 per cent due to the restart of temporarily closed capacity in both countries. Although no major supply disruptions occurred in the first nine months of this year, overall growth was partially offset by lower output in Canada (-11 per cent) and in the United States (-4.5 per cent). After a strong increase over the last few years due to new and expanded capacity, output in Peru (the world’s second largest copper mine producing country) has stabilized. On a regional basis, mine production is estimated to have increased by around 7.5 per cent in Africa, 4 per cent in Latin America, 3 per cent in Asia and 8 per cent in Oceania but declined by 5 per cent in North America and remained essentially unchanged in Europe. World refined production is estimated to have increased by 1 per cent in the first nine months of 2018 with primary production (electrolytic and electro-winning) declining by 1.3 per cent and secondary production (from scrap) increasing by 12 per cent. The main contributor to growth in world refined production was China due to its continued expansion of capacity. Production in Chile was up by 3.5 per cent mainly supported by a 9 per cent increase in primary electrolytic production as output was constrained in the comparative period of 2017 due to a series of smelter maintenance shutdowns. Production in Indonesia and Japan was also substantially higher, recovering from reduced output last year. Increases in electro-winning (SX-EW) output in the DRC and Zambia also contributed to world refined production growth. However, overall growth was partially offset by a 32 per cent decline in India’s output due to the shutdown of Vedanta’s Tuticorin smelter in April and declines in production in Australia, the Philippines, Poland, and the United States as a consequence of maintenance shutdowns and operational issues. On a regional basis, refined output is estimated to have increased in Africa (10 per cent), Asia (1 per cent) and Latin America (2.5 per cent) whilst remaining essentially unchanged in Europe and declining in North America (-5 per cent) and Oceania (-8 per cent). </div>
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On the demand side, China consumes 40-50 per cent of the world’s copper supply, making it by far the world’s dominant consumer. China’s economy did well in 2018, growing at 6.5 per cent though; the strength of China’s current demand for copper is faced with concerns about the future. The trade dispute between the US and China might impact the Chinese economy, shaving a few tenths of one per cent off the country’s growth going forward. So long as China’s growth remains strong, copper prices can probably remain near their current levels. But any signs of slowing in China, and copper prices would have a long way to fall. For the world market, China is a particularly difficult source of demand to replace in the event of its slowdown. While India continues to grow at around 7-8 per cent, its economy is only one-fifth the size of China’s. Meanwhile, the other BRICs (Brazil and Russia) are likely to struggle. The recent selloff in oil could be bad news for copper demand from Russia, Brazil and other oil producers. </div>
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The other factor vastly affecting the copper prices is the strengthening dollar. If the U.S. economy is sufficiently robust to support continued monetary tightening, USD might strengthen considerably to the probable detriment of copper prices. However, it is also possible, perhaps even likely, that the Fed will soon pause or significantly slow its tightening pace, depriving the dollar of the upward pull of rising short-term interest rates. Moreover, if over-tightening of dollar unintentionally produces an economic slowdown or recession that could have unpredictable effects on copper. Any dollar weakness would most likely be bullish for copper prices. The weakness in European market is also expected to affect the copper trade. In 2019, Europe is likely to face two key tests that may influence copper price - Brexit and the Italian debt situation. If Brexit turns out badly for the British pound (a no-deal exit) this could pull the euro down to the benefit of USD. The same could happen if the Italian debt situation spirals out of control. The Italian debt situation is particularly worrisome given that the European Central Bank has bought European debt up to its legal limit and a second European debt crisis would be of much greater economic consequence than Brexit.</div>
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Hanishhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12987158992865046451noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8028862296867005238.post-76014054467754420892018-12-15T16:00:00.001+05:302018-12-15T16:00:11.398+05:30Dynamics of Agri Warehousing in India<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<span style="font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-IN; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><a href="https://www.ciltindiaexpo.com/presentations/22-Nov-2018/Warehousing-Packaging/Mr.-Sauarh-Sood.pdf">https://www.ciltindiaexpo.com/presentations/22-Nov-2018/Warehousing-Packaging/Mr.-Sauarh-Sood.pdf</a></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 14.6667px;"><br /></span></span></div>
Hanishhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12987158992865046451noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8028862296867005238.post-66682913353586816292018-10-17T12:49:00.000+05:302018-10-17T12:49:19.731+05:30My View On Kharif Crop Estimates- Live on CNBC Awaaz<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<a href="https://hindi.moneycontrol.com/tv/cnbc-awaaz-shows/commodity-roundup_2018-10-16.html">https://hindi.moneycontrol.com/tv/cnbc-awaaz-shows/commodity-roundup_2018-10-16.html</a><br /><br /><span id="goog_1425325477"></span><a href="https://www.blogger.com/"></a><span id="goog_1425325478"></span></div>
Hanishhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12987158992865046451noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8028862296867005238.post-13915090678665955202018-10-08T16:41:00.000+05:302018-10-08T16:41:41.127+05:30Copper Bulls Cramped by Chinese Shrinking Demand<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The long-term firm demand of copper from China has excessively been down played by the recent trade war between China and US. It is clear from the metals prices that the Chinese economy is slowing down. Trump threw his tariff tantrums as the Chinese government was getting tough on unregulated lending. This declining demand pattern was well reflected in the decelerating growth numbers of Chinese manufacturing sector which has raised immense pressure on policymakers as U.S. tariffs appear to be inflicting a heavier toll on the Chinese economy. A private survey has reflected that the growth in the Chinese factory sector stalled after 15 months of expansion and the export orders are falling sharply. Tensions between the world’s two largest economies have battered prices of resources across the board, but the move in copper is notable because of its heavy use in construction and manufacturing. Further, a weaker global growth outlook caused by an escalating trade dispute is likely to significantly dent the demand. It's not entirely clear how that pans out — the idea that we're going to see a resolution in October or November looks unlikely as US has reiterated that it was “too soon” for Washington to talk to Beijing about working out a deal on trade, suggesting U.S. tariffs have yet to exert enough pressure to force Beijing into making concessions at the negotiating table, so a protracted battle means again as we look into 2019, the growth trajectory looks uncertain, so that growth would need to be upgraded before more investors gets meaningfully associated.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Investors also need to keen monitor the swings in the dollar, as for much of the year, a stronger dollar has made copper and other commodities denominated in the U.S. currency more expensive for overseas buyers. The dollar climbed to a 15-month high in August but has since come down 0.8 per cent, relieving some pressure on commodities. While US-China trade tensions are unlikely to fade, China’s growth-supportive policy response will likely spur a year-end rally in some of the weakest performing commodities sectors. Copper, often considered a bellwether of global growth, gained 5 per cent in September, helped by optimism that broader US tariffs would prompt China to invest more heavily in areas like infrastructure to support its domestic economy.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Amidst, the increased uncertainties in the global economic scenario, the supply and demand has also changed marginally. The supply of copper has improved while the demand has slowed down. On the demand side, World mine production is estimated to have increased by 5 per cent in the first half of 2018, with concentrate production rising by 5 per cent and solvent extraction-electro-winning (SX-EW) by 6 per cent: The increase in world mine production of about 485,000 t copper was mainly due to constrained output in the comparative period of 2017 namely in Chile and Indonesia, production in Chile, the world’s biggest copper mine producing country, increased by 12 per cent primarily because production in February/March 2017 was restricted by a strike at Escondida (the world’s biggest copper mine) and because there is an improvement in Codelco’s production levels in 2018, Indonesian output increased by 40 per cent because comparative output in 2017 was negatively affected by a temporary ban on concentrate exports that started in January and ended in April. and a 16 per cent increase in SX-EW production in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and a 12 per cent rise in Zambian mine output due to the restart of temporarily closed capacity. Although no major supply disruptions occurred in the first half of this year, overall growth was partially offset by lower output at some mines in Canada (-7 per cent) and in the United States (-8 per cent). After a strong increase in the last few years due to new and expanded capacity, output in Peru (the world’s second largest copper mine producing country) has levelled off. On a regional basis, mine production is estimated to have increased by around 10 per cent in Africa, 8 per cent in Latin America, 5.5 per cent in Asia, 3 per cent in Europe and 8 per cent in Oceania and declined by 6 per cent in North America.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">World refined production is estimated to have increased by 2 per cent in the first half of 2018 with primary production (electrolytic and electro-winning) rising by 0.3 per cent and secondary production (from scrap) increasing by 9 per cent. In tonnage terms, the main contributor to growth in world refined production was China due to its continued expansion of capacity. Production in Chile was up by 6.5 per cent supported by a 4.7 per cent increase in electro-winning (SX-EW) production mainly because comparative output in 2017 was constrained by the strike at Escondida referred to previously. In addition, primary electrolytic production increased by 10 per cent mainly due to improved production at Codelco. Production in Indonesia and Japan was also substantially higher, recovering from reduced output last year as a consequence of a strike and maintenance shutdown. Increases in electro-winning (SX-EW) output in the DRC and Zambia also contributed to world refined production growth. However, overall growth was partially offset by a 20 per cent decline in India’s output due to the shutdown of Vedanta’s Tuticorin smelter in April and declines in production in Poland and the United States as a consequence of maintenance shutdowns. On a regional basis, refined output is estimated to have increased in Africa (11 per cent), Asia (2 per cent) and Latin America (5 per cent) while remaining essentially unchanged in Europe and declining in North America (2.5 per cent) and Oceania (5 per cent).</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">On the demand side, world apparent refined usage is estimated to have increased by about 1 per cent in the first half of 2018. China was the biggest contributor to growth with apparent usage (excluding changes in unreported stocks) increasing by 4 per cent, driven by a 17 per cent increase in net refined copper imports (as Chinese customs have temporarily suspended the publication of copper trade data since March, exports are calculated based on reversed trade and are likely to be revised). Preliminary data indicates that world ex-China usage declined by 1.5 per cent. Among other major copper using countries, demand increased in India and the EU but declined in the United States and remained essentially unchanged in Japan.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Over recent weeks and months, new trade agreements have calmed the waters for international commerce. The U.S. and European Union have come close to an agreement. The most significant issue facing the copper market, industrial commodities, and the companies that produce them has been the trade dispute between the U.S. and China. Commodities are on the front lines of the conflict which creates barriers for the flow of the raw materials around the world, and copper is no exception. China is the leading consumer of these commodities, and the trade issues have weighed on the Chinese economy. The escalation of the trade dispute over recent weeks continues to stand in front of any substantial comeback in the price of copper. I continue to believe that the solution to the current dispute will come from an economic summit between China's President Xi and U.S. President Trump in the coming weeks or months and the copper would re-embark on positive trend.</span></div>
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Hanishhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12987158992865046451noreply@blogger.com0