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Tuesday, 10 December 2013

Kharif crop estimates for 2013-14

Indian agriculture is always under increased pressure on account of consistent population growth (Annual 1.53 per cent) and its extensive reliability on monsoon rains. In the recent times the impact of global warming has increased the uncertainty in both time and amount of rains in the monsoon season.

As per ESSO-India Meteorological Department (IMD), the Southwest monsoon seasonal rainfall for the country as a whole is most likely to be Normal (96-104% of Long Period Average (LPA)) with the highest probability of 46%. However, the probability for the seasonal rainfall to be deficient (below 90% of LPA) or excess (above 110% of LPA) is relatively low (10% and 3% respectively). Based on studies, a negative phase of IOD predicted in the later part of monsoon, predicted by JAMSTEC, Japan. Majority of the models indicate that El Nino 3.4 SSTs will remain near neutral ENSO condition. Operational/experimental forecasts prepared by international institutes like the ECMWF (Europe), NCEP (USA) ECMWF, APCC (Korea), Sintex /Jamstec (Japan), CDAC (Centre for development of Advanced Computing), IRI Columbia University (USA), ITEC(Japan, MRI (JAPAN) and EUROSIP (Europe) have all predicted the monsoon to be 103% OF LPA  for the period between June and September 2013.

Amidst expectation of normal monsoon, the Indian kharif crop scenario is likely to improve significantly. The total kharif foodgrain production is likely to improve by 8.09 per cent over last year to 135.00 million tonnes. Rice is expected to show an increase in area by 3.99 per cent and an increase of 5.13 per cent in production over last year. Among the oilseed crops, the overall production is expected to increase by 20.63 per cent over last year, in which the groundnut production to expected to increase significantly by 86.71 per cent over last year. In this current monsoon season the only crop with negative acreage and production over last year is likely to be sugarcane whose area is expected to decline by 6.27 per cent and its production is likely to decline by 0.42 per cent.

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