Supply & Demand Scenario
India
continues to be the leading producer of guar seed in the world with a total
share of over 80-85 per cent of the global supply. The country’s guar seed
production for the year 2012-13 is estimated to be 1.6 million MT against 1.25
million MT last year. The biggest producer of guar seed in the country continues
to be Rajasthan (83.37 per cent) followed by Haryana (13.08 per cent). Other
major producers of Gaur seed in the country are Gujarat (3.38 per cent), Punjab
(0.18 per cent) and Uttar Pradesh (0.09 per cent). The opening stock for the
next season will be 60 lakh MT while the total supply is estimated to be 2.0 to
2.2 million MT.
The
consumption pattern of guar seeds is largely influenced by the demands from the
petroleum industry of United States of America and the oil fields in the Middle
East as the derivative products of these seeds are quite useful in the
petroleum drilling industries. The USA
is the largest consumer of guar gum with an annual consumption of 45,000 tonnes
which represents 25 per cent of world trade. Germany & Japan consume
another 23 per cent with the UK, Denmark and the Netherlands combining take
further 22 per cent of world trade. With the recent surge in the prices of guar
seed to over Rs. 25000, the major importing nations have resorted to new
synthetic products leaving the guar exporters in a fix.
Price
Trend Analysis
The guar seed spot market price variation study
indicates that the prices have always been declining since the re-launch of the
futures trade in Indian Exchanges. Exports which touched record 7.07 lakh MT in
FY 2011-12, declined in FY 2012-13 as US, the largest importer of Guar gum has
stocked huge inventories. During the FY 2012-13, guar gum exports stood at 4.58
lakh MT during April 2012-February 2013. This situation is likely to change in
the coming months as the prices have already corrected over 60 per cent in the
recent months. The market is also finding support from the traders owing to
increased demand from the stockiest and global industries. The Indian market
is expected to find strong support at the levels of 3900-4000 and has good
potential of reaching 7000 and 9000 on the higher side.
