With
the Kharif Sowing almost on the verge of completion we at NBHC are releasing
our 1st Kharif Crop Estimate - 2018-19. On the Monsoon front,
India's monsoon, which irrigates more than half of the country's farmland, is
below an earlier forecast of normal showers. Backed by good monsoon rainfall
last year India had produced record 284.83 MT of food grains in the 2017-18, this
year highly erratic monsoon and its obscure spread may reduce food grain output
in the ongoing Kharif season. As per our analysis and industry’s feedback on
the sowing progress and the status of the current crop, the total Kharif
Cereals production is likely to decline marginally by 1.71 per cent. Despite heavy rains after the second half of August
and first week of September, which caused floods across Bihar, Kerala, Assam
Gujarat, and Himachal Pradesh, as many as 254 districts (total 640 districts
~ 40%) are faced with drought like situation this monsoon. The
country has been affected by heavy rains in some states leading to massive
flooding while the other states are dealing with significantly deficient and
draught like situations. Based on the above
conditions we fell that the total Kharif crop production scenario for the year
2018-19 would turn out to be as explained in table given below.
Total Rice is expected to show a marginal improvement in area and
production by 4.67 per cent and 1.21 per cent. Within the rice segment, Basmati
Rice area and production is expected to decrease by 2.25 per cent and 7.15 per cent
respectively, whereas the Non-Basmati rice is expected to increase marginally
by 4.96 per cent and 1.73 per cent. Maize is expected marginal lower in area at
1.66 per cent and significant decline in production at 9.64 per cent, as many
farmers shifted to other remunerative crops, few districts in Karnataka and Maharashtra, major growers of
the crop, got less rains and experienced pest infestation which would have
result in yield loss. Maximum Decline is expected in Ragi
whose production is expected to fall by 23.88 per cent while its area is likely
to shrink by 18.90 per cent. Lack of remunerative income has led Jowar &
Bajra farmers to shift their cropping pattern to other cash crops.
In the pulses sector, we expect the area under Moong to increase by 7.95
per cent whereas the production is expected to rise sharply by 26.07 per cent.
Arhar area is expected to increase by 5.10 per cent and the production is
expected to experience an increase of 3.06 per cent. Urad area and production
is expected to be low by 9.52 per cent and 1.89 per cent respectively. Overall,
the total Kharif pulses area and production is likely to decline marginally by 3.75
per cent and 1.80 per cent respectively over last year.
The oil seed sector is likely to see a marginal decline in production by
3.92 per cent. The decline in production is expected to the tune of 50.67 per
cent, 28.49 per cent, 21.84 per cent and 17.36 per cent for Niger, Castor,
Groundnut and Sunflower respectively. Soybean is the only oilseed crop where area
is expected to be up by 6.57 per cent and the production is expected to increase
by 12.20 per cent for the coming season.
In this current
monsoon season, the cash crop section is likely to show an overall neutral
scenario as only the area for Sugarcane is expected up by 4.06 per cent whereas
Jute & Mesta and Cotton is down by 0.70 per cent and 2.46 per cent
respectively. In terms of production significant rise of 10.11 per cent is
expected in sugarcane while marginal decline of 0.15 per cent and 4.84 per cent
is expected in Jute & Mesta and Cotton respectively.
