Supply & Demand Scenario
India’s rape seed production in
2012-13 is estimated at around 78.20 lakh MT, up from around 66.04 lakh MT
produced in 2011-12. About 62.40 per cent of the total production for the
country was contributed by 2 states. The top rapeseed producing states of the
country are Rajasthan (47.05 per cent) and Uttar Pradesh (15.34 per cent). Rape
seed being a Rabi crop, sown during October to December is highly dependent on
good monsoon. This year, good rainfall received during the current monsoon
season in major producing regions will certainly provide the required soil
moisture during the sowing period. The upcoming season is likely to witness a production
of around 6.5 to 7.5 million MT. India
holds second position in the major rape seed consumers list after China.
Global production of rapeseed in 2013-14
is projected to increase 4 percent to 63.4 million MT due to improved crops in
the EU-27, Canada, Ukraine, Russia, and India. After declining in 2012/13, the
growth in international trade of rapeseed could resume. Based on a 5-per cent increase in the 2013/14 area to 6.5
million hectares, EU-27 rapeseed production is projected rising to 20 million MT
from 19.1 million MT last year. However, low global stocks of rapeseed are
likely to persist as consumption may outpace the increase in total supplies. Even
with a bigger crop, EU rapeseed imports for 2013-14 may stay level at 3.1
million MT. Additional imports would probably come from Ukraine, which is
likely to support the global prices.
Price Trend Analysis & Forecast
The rape seed market price variation study indicates that the price
volatility is on the rise since May 2006 owing to reports of higher seasonal
demand. Looking at the
seasonal trend Rapeseed prices tend to remain strong during the months of
August through December amid the strong crush demand for seed during the
festive season and slackening crop arrivals. European Union continues to be the
major importer of RM seed and RM seed oil with an expected hike of 38.64 per
cent and 14.58 per cent respectively. Thus it is expected that with the reports
of shrinkage in production and enhancement of demand, the global prices of
rapeseed will find increased support from the European Union in 2013. Moreover,
Additional imports are likely to come from Ukraine. Based on a sharp increase
in area (up 54 per cent to 1 million hectares) and low winterkill, the Ukraine
rapeseed crop is expected to swell 43 per cent in 2013/14 to 2 million MT.
Almost all of Ukraine’s additional rapeseed production would be used to expand
exports to 1.9 million MT.
The spot prices at Jaipur are
gradually moving upward due to support from the increased meal demand from the
south-east Asian countries. The Indian market is expected to find support at
Rs. 3200 per quintal and has good possibility of testing Rs. 4200 & 4550 in
2014 on the higher side.
