NBHC’s First Kharif Crop Estimates for 2017-18

With the Kharif season almost on the verge of completion we at NBHC are releasing our 1st Kharif Crop Estimate - 2017-18. As per our analysis and industry’s feedback on the sowing progress and the status of the current crop, the total Kharif Cereals production is likely to decline marginally by 1.72 per cent. For the current season the monsoon had arrived timely in good quantum but the distribution has not been uniform. The country has been affected by heavy rains in some states leading to massive flooding while the other states are dealing with significantly deficient and draught like situations. Based on the above conditions we fell that the total Kharif crop production scenario for the year 2017-18 would turn out to be as explained in table given below.   

Rice is expected to show a marginal Improvement in area by 2.84 per cent and a fall of 0.14 per cent in production over last year owing to wide spread rains in major paddy growing areas. Maize is the other cereal crop with significant decline in area as well as production. The area is expected to decline marginally by 1.17 per cent and the production is expected to decline by 7.94 per cent to 17.71 Million MT as major stretch of maize producing areas in major states are experiencing deficient rainfall situations. Maximum Decline is expected in Small Millets whose production is expected to fall by 12.54 per cent while its area is likely to shrink by 27.88%. Lack of remunerative income has led Jowar & Bajra farmers to shift their cropping pattern to other cash crops.   

In the pulses sector, the increased positive focus of the government was clearly visible over the last two years. In the pulses growing states of Madhya Pradesh, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh and Telangana the production is expected to be marginally affected by the lack of rains in the growing areas. We expect the area under Tur, Moong, Urad and Kulthi to increase sharply by 11.41 per cent, 8.86 per cent, 17.10 per cent and 3.82 per cent respectively but the production is not expected to follow the same path owing to adverse weather situations developing in major growing areas. Overall, the total Kharif pulses production is likely to decline by 9.51 per cent over last year with maximum decline expected in Moong (17.15 per cent) flowed by Urad (13.11 per cent) and Tur (12.40 per cent).

The oil seed sector is likely to see a marginal decline in production by 12.43 per cent. Maximum Decline of 17.98 per cent in production is expected in case of soybean followed by 8.28 per cent production decline in Groundnut.

In this current monsoon season, the cash crop section is likely to show an overall positive growth in terms of production. In sugarcane, the production is likely to increase by 14.81 per cent while in cotton the production is likely to decline by 3.98 per cent.