The year 2018-19 has
indicated that below average and erratic distribution of monsoon rains. The
season (June-September) rainfall over the country as a whole was 91 per cent of
its long period average (LPA). Seasonal rainfalls over Northwest India, Central
India, South Peninsula and Northeast (NE) India were 98 per cent, 93 per cent,
98 per cent and 76 per cent of respective LPA. Out of the total 36
meteorological subdivisions, 23 subdivisions constituting 68 per cent of the
total area of the country received normal season rainfall, 1 subdivision
received excess rainfall (1per cent of the total area), and 12 subdivisions (31
per cent of the total area) received deficient season rainfall. Monthly
rainfall over the country as a whole was 95 per cent of LPA in June, 94 per
cent of LPA in July, 92 per cent of LPA in August, and 76 per cent of LPA in
September. Major states affected by this monsoon pattern were Bihar, Gujarat,
Uttar Pradesh (West), Madhya Pradesh, Jharkhand , Telangana, Karnataka and
Maharashtra.
In our first estimate (First Kharif Crop Estimates for 2018-19 – 25th
September 2018) we had broadly concluded that in the year 2018-19, the
production of coarse grains, pulses and cotton are expected to decline by 9.78
per cent, 2.68 per cent and 4.57 per cent over 2017-18. In the current
assessment, the Pulses and oil seed have marginally pushed themselves further in
the negative region with an expected decline of 2.68 per cent and 5.36 per cent
over the last estimate.
The crop wise analysis
reveals that in the group of cereals, the rice crop was least affected by the
irregularity in monsoon as it is grown mostly in well irrigated areas. For the
year 2018-19, rice production has expected to decline marginally by 0.73 per
cent over last year and decline marginally by 1.91 per cent over last estimate.
It is to be noted that the Basmati rice production is expected to fall decline
by about 9.24 per cent but this short fall is being compensated by the increase
in the Non-Basmati rice. Maize is expected to decline significantly by about 10.41
per cent over last year. The decline in the sowing area in Karnataka &
Telangana was the main cause for the decline in production. In the minor
cereals, Small Millets, Ragi and Bajra production is expected to improve by 6.15
per cent, 18.40 per cent and 6.29 per cent respectively while Jowar is expected
to decline by 10.59 per cent over last year.
Pulses production is projected to drop marginally to 9.10 million MT from
9.35 million MT last year due to the fall in Urad output by 10.11 per cent
mainly due to the shift in acreage towards soybean in some parts of Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra.
Total oilseeds production is estimated to be 19.87
million MT, which is 5.36 per cent declined than the last year production 21.00
million MT mainly due to falling groundnut (22.11 per cent), castor (27.16 per
cent) and sesame (3.21 per cent) production in major producing states. Other
oilseed such as Niger expected to increase by 11.83 per cent.
In the cash crop section,
cotton is been seriously affected fluctuating weather conditions. The annual
cotton output in India might drop 4.57 per cent due to inadequate rainfall in
the top two producing states Maharashtra and Gujarat has cut crop yields,
potentially reducing exports from the world's leading producer.
Sugarcane is expected to increase marginally by 3.25
per cent on increased sowing and lastly Jute & Mesta is expected to improve
marginally by 5.11 per cent amidst favourable weather conditions.The table below shows the details of the final estimate for the 2018-19 Kharif crop:
