With the Kharif sowing season almost on the verge of completion we
at NBHC are releasing our 1st
Kharif Crop Estimate - 2015-16. As per our analysis and industry’s feedback
on the sowing progress and the status of the current crop, the total Kharif
Cereals production is likely to decline by 8.98 per cent. For the current
season the monsoon had arrived and spread all over India almost a month ahead
of the scheduled time, but with the backdrop of El Nino (one of the strongest since
1997) and unusual warming of the Indian Ocean Dipole is beginning to take its
toll on the Indian Kharif crops. So far the report of the first sowing of
Kharif crops has been encouraging with 93.94 million hectares against 92.94
million hectares reported in 2014-14 till 21st August 2015. The real
concern in the monsoon development and crop progress lies in the coming days
with forecasts of meteorological drought for the rest of monsoon months in
regions of Maharashtra, Karnataka, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Andhra Pradesh and
Telangana. The crops sown in early June in these areas are already experiencing
moisture stress. Based on the above conditions we fell that the total Kharif
crop production scenario for the year 2015-16 would turn out to be as explained
in the table given below.
Rice is expected to show a marginal decline in area by 5.58 per
cent and a dip of 6.29 per cent in production over last year owing to increased
insect infestation and excessive heavy rains in major paddy growing areas. In
Maize, which is the other major cereal crop, the area is expected to decline by
10.86 per cent and the production is expected to decline by 25.88 per cent to 6.54
million hectare and 13.02 million MT respectively as major stretch of maize
producing areas in Maharashtra, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh and Telangana are
facing near drought situation. Amidst forecast of lesser rains and dry weather for
the coming month (September) the other cereals crops have also been affected.
Maximum improvement is expected in Jowar whose production is expected to expand
by 14.83 per cent as the dry weather is likely to improve the yield for this
hardy crop. Lack of remunerative income has led Bajra farmers to shift their
cropping pattern to other cash crops. Thus, for the year 2015-16 Bajra area and
production is expected to decline by 20.28 per cent and 18.61 per cent
respectively.
In the pulses sector, the moisture stress situation in the pulses
growing states of Madhya Pradesh, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh and Telangana is
likely to take its toll. We expect the area under Tur, Moong and Urad to decline
by 10.56 per cent, 5.37 per cent and 2.29 per cent and likewise the production
to decline by 12.10 per cent, 7.59 per cent and 9.48 per cent respectively.
Overall, the total Kharif pulses production is likely to decline by 9.96 per
cent over last year.
The oil seed sector is likely to see a decline of production by 8.33
per cent. Maximum decline of 27.05 per cent in production is expected in case
of groundnut.
In this current
monsoon season, the cash crop section is likely to show a negative growth in
terms of production. In sugarcane, the production is likely to decline
marginally by 14.87 per cent and in cotton the production is likely to decline
by 9.34 per cent.
