The rainfall during the months of
June-September was at 10 per cent above average. Rainfall over the country as a
whole during the SW monsoon season (June-September), which is the principal
rainy season of the country, was normal (110 per cent of LPA). The 2019
northeast monsoon season (October-December) rainfall over the country as a
whole was above normal (129 per cent of LPA). Live storage in 123 major
reservoirs as on 21 May 2020 was 60.73 BCM as against 36.15 BCM on the same day
last year (21 May 2019) and 37.58 BCM of normal (average of the last 10 years)
storage. Current year’s storage is 168 per cent of last year’s storage and 162
per cent of last 10 year’s average storage. Unseasonal rains, thunderstorms and
snowfall across certain pockets in the country in Feb- March had led to damage of
standing Rabi crops - wheat, mustard and gram as over 60 per cent precipitation
were concentrated in north-western and central India. In India, Rabi harvesting
starts in March in Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Maharashtra and in
April in Punjab, Haryana and Uttar Pradesh. The Government announcement of the
lockdown came right in the middle of this rabi harvesting season. They did
exempt farm activities from the lockdown but the shortage of labour and lack of
transport facilities is expected to impact the rabi crop adversely. Keeping in
consideration the large-scale post monsoon developments and the sowing reports
from various parts of the country, NBHC Pvt. Ltd. has come up with its Final
Rabi Crop Estimates for 2019-20.
In our first estimate (First Rabi Crop
Estimates for 2019-20 – 11th February 2019) we had
broadly concluded that in the year 2019-20, the production of total pulses and
oilseeds are expected to decline by 2.22 per cent and 13.48 per cent over 2018-19.
In the current assessment, the Pulses and oil seed have marginally pushed
themselves further in the negative region with an expected decline of 4.58 per
cent and 6.58 per cent over the last estimate.
Wheat production is expected to fall further
by 3.12 per cent over last estimate as delayed harvesting has led to a fall in
yield and further delays in procurement exposes the crop to untimely rains but would be still higher by 5.61 per
cent over last year mainly because of increase MSP coupled with the surplus
monsoon and post-monsoon rain in October boosted soil moisture levels. Rice
production is expected to increase marginally by 3.17 per cent over last
estimate amidst reports of
higher yield in Telangana but would still be lower by 25.67 per cent over last
year owing to marginal shift in farmer’s focus to
pulses & wheat. Maize is expected to decline further by 2.17 per cent over last estimate leading to overall fall in
production by 0.99 per cent over last year. Jowar production is expected to improved
further by 2.62 per cent over last estimate leading to overall increase
in production by about 23.57 per cent over last year.
Pulses production is projected to drop further by 4.58 per cent over
last estimate, which is 2.22 per cent lower than last year’s production mainly
due to 10.85 per cent drop in the gram production, which constitutes about 70
per cent of the total Rabi Pulses. Gram production is expected to decline further
4.87 per cent over the last estimate mainly due to fall in Madhya Pradesh as
lot of area under gram was diverted for wheat cultivation. Urad, Masoor and
Field Pea are also expected to decline by 2.00 per cent, 2.17 per cent and 5.00
per cent respectively over the last estimate.
The table below shows the details of the Final Estimate for the 2019-20 Rabi Crop:
