NBHC’s First Kharif Crop Estimates for 2018-19

With the Kharif Sowing almost on the verge of completion we at NBHC are releasing our 1^st Kharif Crop Estimate - 2018-19. On the Monsoon front, India's monsoon, which irrigates more than half of the country's farmland, is below an earlier forecast of normal showers. Backed by good monsoon rainfall last year India had produced record 284.83 MT of food grains in the 2017-18, this year highly erratic monsoon and its obscure spread may reduce food grain output in the ongoing Kharif season. As per our analysis and industry’s feedback on the sowing progress and the status of the current crop, the total Kharif Cereals production is likely to decline marginally by 1.71 per cent. Despite heavy rains after the second half of August and first week of September, which caused floods across Bihar, Kerala, Assam Gujarat, and Himachal Pradesh, as many as 254 districts (total 640 districts ~ 40%) are faced with drought like situation this monsoon. The country has been affected by heavy rains in some states leading to massive flooding while the other states are dealing with significantly deficient and draught like situations. Based on the above conditions we fell that the total Kharif crop production scenario for the year 2018-19 would turn out to be as explained in table given below.  

Total Rice is expected to show a marginal improvement in area and production by 4.67 per cent and 1.21 per cent. Within the rice segment, Basmati Rice area and production is expected to decrease by 2.25 per cent and 7.15 per cent respectively, whereas the Non-Basmati rice is expected to increase marginally by 4.96 per cent and 1.73 per cent. Maize is expected marginal lower in area at 1.66 per cent and significant decline in production at 9.64 per cent, as many farmers shifted to other remunerative crops, few districts in Karnataka and Maharashtra, major growers of the crop, got less rains and experienced pest infestation which would have result in yield loss. Maximum Decline is expected in Ragi whose production is expected to fall by 23.88 per cent while its area is likely to shrink by 18.90 per cent. Lack of remunerative income has led Jowar & Bajra farmers to shift their cropping pattern to other cash crops.   

In the pulses sector, we expect the area under Moong to increase by 7.95 per cent whereas the production is expected to rise sharply by 26.07 per cent. Arhar area is expected to increase by 5.10 per cent and the production is expected to experience an increase of 3.06 per cent. Urad area and production is expected to be low by 9.52 per cent and 1.89 per cent respectively. Overall, the total Kharif pulses area and production is likely to decline marginally by 3.75 per cent and 1.80 per cent respectively over last year.

The oil seed sector is likely to see a marginal decline in production by 3.92 per cent. The decline in production is expected to the tune of 50.67 per cent, 28.49 per cent, 21.84 per cent and 17.36 per cent for Niger, Castor, Groundnut and Sunflower respectively. Soybean is the only oilseed crop where area is expected to be up by 6.57 per cent and the production is expected to increase by 12.20 per cent for the coming season.

In this current monsoon season, the cash crop section is likely to show an overall neutral scenario as only the area for Sugarcane is expected up by 4.06 per cent whereas Jute & Mesta and Cotton is down by 0.70 per cent and 2.46 per cent respectively. In terms of production significant rise of 10.11 per cent is expected in sugarcane while marginal decline of 0.15 per cent and 4.84 per cent is expected in Jute & Mesta and Cotton respectively.