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Tuesday, 25 August 2015

NBHC Kharif Crop Estimates for 2015-16 (First)

With the Kharif sowing season almost on the verge of completion we at NBHC are releasing our 1st Kharif Crop Estimate - 2015-16. As per our analysis and industry’s feedback on the sowing progress and the status of the current crop, the total Kharif Cereals production is likely to decline by 8.98 per cent. For the current season the monsoon had arrived and spread all over India almost a month ahead of the scheduled time, but with the backdrop of El Nino (one of the strongest since 1997) and unusual warming of the Indian Ocean Dipole is beginning to take its toll on the Indian Kharif crops. So far the report of the first sowing of Kharif crops has been encouraging with 93.94 million hectares against 92.94 million hectares reported in 2014-14 till 21st August 2015. The real concern in the monsoon development and crop progress lies in the coming days with forecasts of meteorological drought for the rest of monsoon months in regions of Maharashtra, Karnataka, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Andhra Pradesh and Telangana. The crops sown in early June in these areas are already experiencing moisture stress. Based on the above conditions we fell that the total Kharif crop production scenario for the year 2015-16 would turn out to be as explained in the table given below.   
Rice is expected to show a marginal decline in area by 5.58 per cent and a dip of 6.29 per cent in production over last year owing to increased insect infestation and excessive heavy rains in major paddy growing areas. In Maize, which is the other major cereal crop, the area is expected to decline by 10.86 per cent and the production is expected to decline by 25.88 per cent to 6.54 million hectare and 13.02 million MT respectively as major stretch of maize producing areas in Maharashtra, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh and Telangana are facing near drought situation. Amidst forecast of lesser rains and dry weather for the coming month (September) the other cereals crops have also been affected. Maximum improvement is expected in Jowar whose production is expected to expand by 14.83 per cent as the dry weather is likely to improve the yield for this hardy crop. Lack of remunerative income has led Bajra farmers to shift their cropping pattern to other cash crops. Thus, for the year 2015-16 Bajra area and production is expected to decline by 20.28 per cent and 18.61 per cent respectively.    
In the pulses sector, the moisture stress situation in the pulses growing states of Madhya Pradesh, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh and Telangana is likely to take its toll. We expect the area under Tur, Moong and Urad to decline by 10.56 per cent, 5.37 per cent and 2.29 per cent and likewise the production to decline by 12.10 per cent, 7.59 per cent and 9.48 per cent respectively. Overall, the total Kharif pulses production is likely to decline by 9.96 per cent over last year. 
The oil seed sector is likely to see a decline of production by 8.33 per cent. Maximum decline of 27.05 per cent in production is expected in case of groundnut. 
In this current monsoon season, the cash crop section is likely to show a negative growth in terms of production. In sugarcane, the production is likely to decline marginally by 14.87 per cent and in cotton the production is likely to decline by 9.34 per cent.

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