With the Kharif season almost on the verge of completion we at NBHC are releasing our 1st Kharif Crop Estimate - 2016-17. As per our analysis and industry’s feedback on the sowing progress and the status of the current crop, the total Kharif Cereals production is likely to improve by 8.25 per cent. For the current season the monsoon had arrived about 7 days late but spread uniformly over the country barring few pockets. The entire season monsoon was found to be 3 % below normal and the spread details are as: Excess – 13%, Normal – 72 % and Deficient – 15 %. In the deficient regions, out of the 9 deficient sub-divisions, 4 sub-divisions were from South Peninsula (Coastal Karnataka, South Interior Karnataka, Kerala and Lakshadweep), 3 from Northwest India (Haryana, Chandigarh & Delhi, Punjab and Himachal Pradesh), and 1 each from Northeast India (Assam & Meghalaya) and Central India (Gujarat region). The crops sown in these areas are already experiencing moisture stress, but the rest of the country is expected to have good crop. Based on the above conditions we fell that the total Kharif crop production scenario for the year 2015-16 would turn out to be as explained in table given below.
Rice is expected to show a marginal Improvement in area by 5.26 per cent and a rise of 4.96 per cent in production over last year owing to wide spread rains in major paddy growing areas. Maize is the other cereal crop with significant improvement in area as well as production. The area is expected to increase by 13.95 per cent and the production is expected to improve by 28.26 per cent to 19.05 Million MT as major stretch of maize producing areas in major states are experience conducive weather situations. Maximum improvement is expected in Jowar whose production is expected to expand by 25.55 per cent in spite of significant decline in acreage. Lack of remunerative income has led Jowar & Bajra farmers to shift their cropping pattern to other cash crops though the good rains are expected to boost the yield keeping the overall production on the positive side.
In the pulses sector, the increased positive focus of the government was clearly visible. In the pulses growing states of Madhya Pradesh, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh and Telangana major production overhaul is expected. We expect the area under Tur, Moong and Urad to increase sharply by 45.05 per cent, 26.66 per cent and 37.02 per cent and likewise the production also to improve by 53.58 per cent, 37.84 per cent and 42.78 per cent respectively. Overall, the total Kharif pulses production is likely to soar up by 47.88 per cent over last year.
The oil seed sector is likely to see a marginal improvement of production by 15.61 per cent. Maximum increase of 13.68 per cent in production is expected in case of groundnut.
In this current monsoon season, the cash crop section is likely to show a negative growth in terms of production. In sugarcane, the production is likely to decline marginally by 8.51 per cent and in cotton the production is likely to decline by 2.67 per cent.