The northeast rainfall of 2017-18 was best since 2013 at 10 per cent below normal but its distribution has created dry and drenched zones. Cyclonic activities (Cyclone Ockhi) gave retreating rainfall down south but have left the North and Central areas of the country considerably dry. According to Indian Meteorological reports the states of Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh have received below normal rainfall from south west monsoon. The rainfall was deficient by 16 per cent for western MP, 24 per cent for eastern MP, 31 per cent for western UP and 28 per cent for eastern UP. Also the northeast rainfall has been deficient by 95 per cent in UP and 67 per cent in MP. It has spurred a major decrease in Rabi acreage and has specially affected Rabi-wheat sowing in MP and UP.
The total Rabi Cereals production for the year 2017-18 is expected to be lower by 6.65 per cent to 115.40 Million MT owing to scanty and inequitable distribution of rainfall in major growing areas. Wheat is expected to show a decline in area by 3.70 per cent to 30.39 Million Ha and production by 6.33 per cent to 92.16 Million MT over last year owing to lesser crop preference by farmers and expected decline in yield in major growing areas. Rabi rice acreage is recorded lower by 13.48 per cent and its production is expected to decrease by 13.82 per cent due to staggered rainfall. Jowar sowing area is expected to be increase by 6.48 per cent and the production is around 4.26 per cent lower than previous year. Maize production is also expected to decrease by 2.91 per cent and pegged at 6.82 Million MT. Barley, however is the only coarse cereal with positive trend in production and is expected to be 12.77 per cent higher than previous year at 1.96 Million MT.
Chana, Masoor and Field Peas are the pulses that are giving the positive pull to total pulses production. The Gram acreage has increase by 12 per cent and likewise the production is expected to cross 10 lakh MT for the first time in 2017-18. Many of the farmers have shifted to Bengal Gram (Chana) from Wheat as it requires comparatively less moisture from deep soil. Overall, the pulses have shown significant increase in acreage by 9.11 per cent and the production is expected at 14.73 Million MT. Masoor (Lentils) have also shown a surprising uptrend in production and higher stacks have led to uplifting of the export ban. Rabi Masoor production is estimated 25.79 per cent higher at 1.28 Million MT as against 1.02 during 2016-17.
With decrease in Rabi cereal production, the Rabi Foodgrain production is expected to decrease by 4.84 per cent to 130.13 Million MT as compared to 136.75 Million MT reported last year.
Oilseeds however have observed a downtrend in both acreage and production by 8.82 per cent and 9.34 per cent. The decreased production estimates is majorly due to a 13.54 per cent decline in mustard sowing mostly in Rajasthan which has resulted in lowering of the production estimate by 10.63 per cent to 71.28 Lakh MT. As Rajasthan didn’t receive appropriate rain during September-October and higher temperatures during these two months resulted in lower soil moisture levels causing lower sowing. Also, mustard prices during last season had created a disappointment among farmers further weakening the sowing. Sunflower and safflower production for 2017-18 has been estimated lower at 139.83 and 58.67 lakh MT than 143 and 78 lakh MT during 2016-17. Rabi Groundnut production is expected to decrease by 3.52 per cent at 12.95 lakh MT as against 13.43 lakh MT during 2016-17. Odisha has recorded lower Rabi sowing at 0.72 lakh Ha which is less than previous year by 0.18 lakh ha, while Telangana Rabi sowing was recorded 0.13 lakh ha less than previous year at 1.31 lakh Ha.
