Unseasonal rain and
hailstorms have once again hit the crops across North and West India but the
intensity has been on the lower side. Report of marginal damage is received
from localised pockets in cereals, oilseeds and pulses. The main states
affected by the rains & hailstorms are Punjab, Rajasthan, Haryana, Uttar
Pradesh, Maharashtra, Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh. As per the recent assessments
by various agencies wheat crop has been affected in Punjab, Haryana, Uttar
Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh. Apart from wheat, slight losses have also been seen
in RM Seed in the states of Rajasthan, Punjab and Haryana. Reports of loss in
Chana is reported from Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan.
In my first estimate
(First Rabi Crop Estimates for 2015-16 – Dated: 19th
December 2015) had already lowered the crop size for major crops over
2015-16, Owing to deficient monsoon (14 per cent on National level) and delayed
sowing of Rabi crops as the kharif harvest was delayed. The situation of
increased moisture stress in wheat fields in Punjab, Haryana and Uttar Pradesh
got relief after light showers in 1st and 2nd Week of
March and the crop situation has improved. Accessing the new improved scenario,
I have positively revised my wheat estimate by 8.40 per cent to 83.34 million
MT which, still below the last year’s estimate by 3.57 per cent. Rabi Maize
total production is set to decline further by 13.92 per cent over last estimate
to 4.92 million MT. The barley production in Rajasthan and other parts of the
country is set to decline by 25.00 per cent over last estimate to 1.29 million
MT. Overall, the total Rabi Coarse Cereals production is likely to decline by
9.47 per cent over last year to 9.99 million MT.
In the pulses
sector, the Chana (Chickpea) is expected to be most affected by the lack of
residual soil moisture in major growing areas and the recent hailstorms in
several pockets of Rajasthan. I expect the production of Chana to decline by
23.24 per cent to 6.24 million MT over last estimate. Overall, the total Rabi Pulses
production is likely to decline by 14.55 per cent over last year to 9.89
million MT.
The oil seed sector
is likely to see an improvement in production by 3.72 per cent to 8.66 million
MT keeping the total rabi oil seed supply at the same levels as last year.
Based on the above reports and feedback from the
Industry / Traders I have revised my Rabi crop estimates for upcoming season
as:
