With
the Kharif season almost on the verge of completion we at NBHC are releasing
our 1st Kharif Crop Estimate - 2017-18. As per our analysis and industry’s
feedback on the sowing progress and the status of the current crop, the total
Kharif Cereals production is likely to decline marginally by 1.72 per cent. For
the current season the monsoon had arrived timely in good quantum but the
distribution has not been uniform. The country has been affected by heavy rains
in some states leading to massive flooding while the other states are dealing
with significantly deficient and draught like situations. Based on the above
conditions we fell that the total Kharif crop production scenario for the year
2017-18 would turn out to be as explained in table given below.
Rice
is expected to show a marginal Improvement in area by 2.84 per cent and a fall
of 0.14 per cent in production over last year owing to wide spread rains in
major paddy growing areas. Maize is the other cereal crop with significant
decline in area as well as production. The area is expected to decline
marginally by 1.17 per cent and the production is expected to decline by 7.94
per cent to 17.71 Million MT as major stretch of maize producing areas in major
states are experiencing deficient rainfall situations. Maximum Decline is
expected in Small Millets whose production is expected to fall by 12.54 per
cent while its area is likely to shrink by 27.88%. Lack of remunerative income
has led Jowar & Bajra farmers to shift their cropping pattern to other cash
crops.
In the
pulses sector, the increased positive focus of the government was clearly
visible over the last two years. In the pulses growing states of Madhya
Pradesh, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh and Telangana the production is expected to
be marginally affected by the lack of rains in the growing areas. We expect the
area under Tur, Moong, Urad and Kulthi to increase sharply by 11.41 per cent,
8.86 per cent, 17.10 per cent and 3.82 per cent respectively but the production
is not expected to follow the same path owing to adverse weather situations
developing in major growing areas. Overall, the total Kharif pulses production
is likely to decline by 9.51 per cent over last year with maximum decline
expected in Moong (17.15 per cent) flowed by Urad (13.11 per cent) and Tur
(12.40 per cent).
The
oil seed sector is likely to see a marginal decline in production by 12.43 per
cent. Maximum Decline of 17.98 per cent in production is expected in case of soybean
followed by 8.28 per cent production decline in Groundnut.
In this current monsoon season, the cash crop
section is likely to show an overall positive growth in terms of production. In
sugarcane, the production is likely to increase by 14.81 per cent while in
cotton the production is likely to decline by 3.98 per cent.
