Continuous Monsoon Boosts Kharif Crop Prospects in India

Recent Weather Development

Last week’s feeble offshore trough from south Gujarat coast to Karnataka coast persisted over same area on 31st July; it ran from south Gujarat coast to Kerala coast on 1st August; persisted over same area on 2nd, 3rd & 4th from Gujarat coast to Lakshadweep on 5th; from Karnataka coast to Lakshadweep on 6th August.

Last week had well marked low-pressure area over northwest Bay of Bengal & neighbourhood moved west-northwestwards and laid as a low-pressure area over interior Odisha & neighbourhood on 31st July, it further moved west-northwestwards and became less marked over north Chhattisgarh & neighbourhood on 1st August. However, the associated upper air cyclonic circulation laid over East Madhya Pradesh & neighbourhood and extended upto 5.8 km above mean sea level on 1st August. It laid over northeast Madhya Pradesh & adjoining southeast Uttar Pradesh extending upto 1.5 km above mean sea level on 2nd August. The upper air cyclonic circulation merged with monsoon trough, while over northeast Madhya Pradesh and neighbourhood on 3rd August.

An upper air cyclonic circulation laid over Saurashtra & Kutch extending upto 0.9 km above mean sea level on 1st August and over Kutch and adjoining south Pakistan on 2nd August. It laid over the same area between 0.9 km and 2.1 km above mean sea level on 3rd August; between 1.5 km and 3.1 km above mean sea level on 4th August and moved away westwards on 5th August.

Another upper air cyclonic circulation laid over northwest Bay of Bengal between 5.8 to 9.5 km. above mean sea level on 1st August and over north Bay of Bengal & neighbourhood extending between 2.1 and 7.6 km above mean sea level on 2nd August. Under its influence, a low-pressure area formed over North Bay of Bengal & neighbourhood on 3rd August. It concentrated into a well-marked low-pressure area over the same region and again concentrated into a Depression, which laid centered over Gangetic West Bengal close to Midnapur on 4th Thereafter, it moved westwards and intensified into a Deep Depression, laid centered over Jharkhand & adjoining Gangetic West Bengal, about 50 km south of Jamshedpur on the same day. While moving westwards, it laid centered over north Chhattisgarh and adjoining Jharkhand & northwest Odisha, about 100 km. east-southeast of Ambikapur on 5th August morning. Thereafter, it moved west-northwestwards and weakened into a depression over north Chhattisgarh & adjoining East Madhya Pradesh, about 150 km east of Umaria on 5th August evening and laid over northeast Madhya Pradesh & neighbourhood close to south of Sidhi the same night. The depression further moved west-northwestwards and laid centred over central parts of north Madhya Pradesh & neighbourhood, about 50 km southeast of Khajuraho on 6th August.  

South Peninsula and Central India has received excess rainfall. Out of 36 meteorological subdivisions, the rainfall has been excess over 11, normal over 06, deficient over 14 and scanty over 05 sub-divisions. In area-wise distribution, 55% area of the country received excess/normal rainfall, 29% received deficient rainfall and remaining 16% area received scanty rainfall.  

For the country as a whole, cumulative rainfall during this year’s monsoon has so far upto 06 August been 18% below the Long Period Average (LPA) as against 23% till last week upto 30 July. Out of 36 meteorological subdivisions, the rainfall has been excess/normal over 20 and deficient over 16 sub-divisions. There is no Meteorological sub division in scanty category. In area-wise distribution, 58% area of the country received excess/normal rainfall and remaining 42% area received deficient rainfall.

Category	No. of Subdivisions	Sub-divisional % area of country
Excess	1	3%
Normal	17	47%
Deficiency	18	50%
Scanty	0	0%
No Report	0	0%

A well-marked low pressure area lies over northwest Madhya Pradesh and neighbourhood. The system would move in west-northwesterly direction and weaken further into a low-pressure area by tomorrow. The associated upper air cyclonic circulation extends upto mid-tropospheric levels.
The quantum of rainfall for the season given in the adjacent table (10.08.2014) reveals that 50 per cent of the metrological divisions are still experiencing deficient rainfall.

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      Kharif sowing area has crossed 80.3 million hectares, but is still 9% lower than the 88.2 million hectares sown by this time last year, according to data released by the agriculture ministry on 8th August 2014. Crop wise, rice has been sown in 26.7 million hectare, coarse cereals in 1.4 million hectare, pulses in 760,000 hectare and oilseeds in 1.52 million hectare. While rice sowing area is nearing last year’s acreage (27.3 million hectare), sowing of coarse cereals has dipped by over 20%. The planting of sugarcane and cotton is also in progress. Sugarcane has been planted in 47.17 lakh Ha and cotton in 112.24 lakh Ha so far. The government, meanwhile, has announced a diesel subsidy of 50 per cent to enable farmers to re-plant their damaged crops.

Expectation on Sowing Progress: The current revival of monsoon is speeding up the sowing in the season and is likely to move towards near normal conditions in the next couple of weeks.

Indian Monsoon Taking a Positive Turn

Recent Weather Development

- The biggest threat to this year's monsoon seems to have receded. El Nino conditions that were building up in the Pacific have eased in the past month, prompting the Australian weather bureau to withdraw its El Nino 'alert'.

- Rains in the northwest India grain bowl as well as in soybean belts of western-central parts are expected speed up summer planting activities.

- Weather officials have said that the momentum picked up by Southwest Monsoon in July is likely to continue in August with normal rainfall expected next month. While July is likely to receive rainfall of 93 per cent of the Long Range Forecast (LPA), rainfall of 96 per cent of the LPA is expected in August.

- While most international weather agencies see the El Nino threat receding, the US's Climate Prediction Center still maintains a 70 per cent chance of the event occurring during the monsoon season. Nevertheless, the consensus view seems to favour the occurrence of a mild El Nino later this year. 

- The monsoon's revival has increased sowing of crops by 54 per cent in the past week to 53.32 million hectare, but planting is still much lower than last year.

- According to agriculture ministry data, sowing is been done on 53.32 million hectare, against 72.91 million hectare in the corresponding period of the previous year. Total normal area under kharif planting is 105.75 million hectare. 

- The crop wise analysis planting of paddy was relatively slow in UP, Odisha, Maharashtra, Chhattisgarh, MP, Andhra, Assam, Haryana and West Bengal. The table below would give the details of the progress of sowing made up to 18th July 2014.

State wise Development in Rainfall Activity

For the country as a whole, cumulative rainfall during this year’s monsoon has so far upto 29 July has been down by 24 per cent. The details are given in the table above.

Major Forecast for the Coming Week

·         Southwest Monsoon is likely to continue in active phase especially over many parts of east & central India.

·         Rainfall is likely to increase considerably over plains of northwest India & adjoining foothills of Himalayas. 

·         Near normal rainfall would occur over along west coast and below normal over some parts of northeastern states and south interior Peninsula.

The southwest monsoon would continue to progress with vigour over East Rajasthan and be active over West Uttar Pradesh, West Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat Region, Konkan & Goa, Madhya Maharashtra, Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Telangana.

Conclusion: 

I feel that the Indian Kharif sowing is likely to pick up in the coming day and would reach to a near normal situation in couple of week's time.