Indian Monsoon Taking a Positive Turn

Recent Weather Development

- The biggest threat to this year's monsoon seems to have receded. El Nino conditions that were building up in the Pacific have eased in the past month, prompting the Australian weather bureau to withdraw its El Nino 'alert'.

- Rains in the northwest India grain bowl as well as in soybean belts of western-central parts are expected speed up summer planting activities.

- Weather officials have said that the momentum picked up by Southwest Monsoon in July is likely to continue in August with normal rainfall expected next month. While July is likely to receive rainfall of 93 per cent of the Long Range Forecast (LPA), rainfall of 96 per cent of the LPA is expected in August.

- While most international weather agencies see the El Nino threat receding, the US's Climate Prediction Center still maintains a 70 per cent chance of the event occurring during the monsoon season. Nevertheless, the consensus view seems to favour the occurrence of a mild El Nino later this year. 

- The monsoon's revival has increased sowing of crops by 54 per cent in the past week to 53.32 million hectare, but planting is still much lower than last year.

- According to agriculture ministry data, sowing is been done on 53.32 million hectare, against 72.91 million hectare in the corresponding period of the previous year. Total normal area under kharif planting is 105.75 million hectare. 

- The crop wise analysis planting of paddy was relatively slow in UP, Odisha, Maharashtra, Chhattisgarh, MP, Andhra, Assam, Haryana and West Bengal. The table below would give the details of the progress of sowing made up to 18th July 2014.

State wise Development in Rainfall Activity

For the country as a whole, cumulative rainfall during this year’s monsoon has so far upto 29 July has been down by 24 per cent. The details are given in the table above.

Major Forecast for the Coming Week

·         Southwest Monsoon is likely to continue in active phase especially over many parts of east & central India.

·         Rainfall is likely to increase considerably over plains of northwest India & adjoining foothills of Himalayas. 

·         Near normal rainfall would occur over along west coast and below normal over some parts of northeastern states and south interior Peninsula.

The southwest monsoon would continue to progress with vigour over East Rajasthan and be active over West Uttar Pradesh, West Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat Region, Konkan & Goa, Madhya Maharashtra, Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Telangana.

Conclusion: 

I feel that the Indian Kharif sowing is likely to pick up in the coming day and would reach to a near normal situation in couple of week's time.