1st Rabi Crop Estimates for 2015-16

With the Rabi Sowing season coming to its end, NBHC Pvt. Ltd. is releasing its first Rabi crop estimate for the year 2015-16. Before coming to the actual estimates we would like to highlight few weather developments which have put the Indian crop production on the back foot. In the current season the monsoon had arrived and spread all over India almost a month ahead of the scheduled time, but with the backdrop of El Nino (one of the strongest since 1997) and unusual warming of the Indian Ocean Dipole the monsoon fell short by 14 per cent on the seasonal basis with increased inequitable distribution. Moreover, the Central Water Commission which monitors 91 major reservoirs in the country has reported capacity of 80.26 BCM as against 100.39 BCM on 10.12.2014 (last year) and 105.05 BCM of normal (average storage of the last 10 years) storage. Current year’s storage is 80 per cent of the last year’s storage and 76 per cent of the normal storage. Owing to weak monsoon and lack of rains from the retreating monsoon (winter rains) the current winter crops is likely to face severe stressful growing season leading to lower output. 

As per our assessment and market feedback on sowing crop progress, the total Rabi food grain’ production is expected to decline by 13.38 per cent over last year to 111.47 million MT. The drop in the production estimate is because of the recent delayed sowing of Rabi crops and expectation of lower yield in major producing areas. Wheat is expected to show a decline in area and production by 16.27 per cent and 16.51 per cent respectively over last year owing to expected decline in yield. The lack of residual moisture, lower rains from retreating monsoon, increased incidence of pest & disease and delayed sowing is likely to be the major cause for the shortfall. In most of the Rabi crop there has been a marginal to significant fall in the acreage which itself is painting a gloomy picture to the overall Rabi crop outlook for the coming season of 2015-16. 

In the pulses sector, we expect the area under Chana to marginal up by 3.12 per cent over last year and the production is likely to up by 6.73 per cent to 7.69 million MT. But overall, the total Rabi pulses production is likely to decline by 10.82 per cent over last year. 

The oil seed sector is likely to see a decline of production by 2.13 per cent. The decline of 8.92 per cent in production is also expected in case of groundnut over last year.