As the arrival of monsoon delayed
over a week, the withdrawal has also delayed this year. Met experts believe
that the withdrawal is likely to commence only by the end of September. In June
this year, the delay in the arrival of monsoon and the subsequent impact of
cyclone Vayu resulted in the worst performance of monsoon in the last five
years. However, bountiful rains in July and August made up for a substantial
deficit of 33 per cent. Now, the 2019 monsoon figures are the best in the last
five years with over 5 per cent excess rainfall. India received a total of
931.6 mm rainfall from 1st June to 30th September as
against the normal of 869.4 mm. Heavy rains in August and September caused
floods across Rajasthan, Maharashtra, Karnataka and Kerala. Based on the above
conditions we fell that the total Kharif crop production scenario for the year 2018-19
would turn out to be as explained in table given below.
Total Rice is expected to show marginal
improvements in area by 2.80 per cent because of farmers are shifted 20 per
cent – 25 per cent crop area from non-basmati rice to basmati rice in Punjab on
higher export demand of last year. Receding waters in flood affected regions of
Bihar, Odisha and Karnataka have helped in recovering area under paddy
cultivation but delayed in sowing we are expecting lower yield by 4.82 per
cent. To save water for our future generations, Department of Agriculture and
Farmers welfare, Haryana launched a new pilot scheme. The scheme is for
replacement of paddy by Maize and other crops in 7 dark zone brocks with a
target to diversify around 5oooo Ha area from this season. A smaller crop last year pushed India to
import maize after a gap of two years; acreage is expected to increase by 7.17
per cent this year but still we are expecting a 10.64 per cent lower crop size because
of the widespread fall armyworm infestation which is already showing signs of
aggravations. Area and production of Jowar is expected to fall by 4.79 per cent
and 3.70 per cent respectively and Bajra area is expected to increase by 2.47
per cent despite decline in production by 5.83 per cent.
In the pulses sector, acreages under Tur and Urad exceeded
last year’s levels after widespread rains in early August boosted the sowing,
the government has begun to dispose of stocks. Tur production is expected to be
low by 2.78 per cent. Urad area is expected to increase by 0.36 per cent but
production is expected to decline significantly by 15.73 per cent. We expect
the area under Moong to decrease by 4.66 per cent whereas the production is
expected sharply lower by 22.93 per cent mainly due to flooding of fields in
Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra & Rajasthan.
In oilseeds, Castor area is expected to increase by 5.32 per
cent and likely to see significant increase in production by 12.25 per cent due
to good prices of castor in domestic Mandis. The decline in production is expected
to the tune of 11.00 per cent, 7.63 per cent, 1.65 per cent and 0.76 per cent for
Sesamum, Sunflower, Groundnut and Niger Seed respectively. Soybean acreage
expected to improve by 5.68 per cent but the production is expected
significantly lowered by 21.97 per cent due to heavy rains and widespread
flooding in major growing area which has diminished hope of normal crop in the
major soybean growing regions.
In this current monsoon
season, the cash crop section is likely to show an overall neutral scenario as
area for Sugarcane is expected up by 14.32 per cent but decline in production
by 12.32 per cent because of farmers from major sugarcane growing belts are
shifted sugarcane crop to other crop as government gives incentives to
encourage farmers to grow crops other than sugar cane. Among the potential
recommendations is an incentive of 6,000 rupees ($121) an acre for farmers who
stop growing sugarcane, especially in the major sugarcane growing states such
as Uttar Pradesh. Cotton area and production is expected up by 4.32 per cent and
7.45 per cent respectively.
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