NBHC’s Final Kharif Crop Estimates for 2019-20

The kharif season of 2019-20 had been very challenging as the monsoon had been initially late, erratic and subsequently very heavy and devastating. The monsoon rains had been 110 per cent over its (Long term Average) LPA with maximum in Central India followed by Southern Peninsula, Northwest and Northeast respectively. The widespread floods was seen in 13 states between late July and early August 2019, due to incessant rains caused significant dent in the acreage and production of several kharif crops. As per our assessment, sowing rice and pulses cultivation has been most hit in West Bengal, Bihar, Jharkhand, Assam, Chhattisgarh, Odisha, Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan and Maharashtra. After the flood receded the sowing recovered and things started to approach to normalcy, though the entire kharif season has been delayed by about 20 to 25 days. The real deterrent for the kharif crop came with the post monsoon rains which was 32 per cent excess and the maximum impact was felt in Northwest region (121 per cent excess) and the central India region (64 per cent excess). After making due considerations to the above fact and other climatological and environmental conditions, we have come up with our revised estimate for the kharif crop for the season 2019-20. 

In our first estimate (First Kharif Crop Estimates for 2019-20 – 5^th October 2019) we had broadly concluded that in the year 2019-20, the production of coarse grains, pulses, Oil Seeds and Sugarcane are expected to decline by 24.99 per cent, 41.43 per cent, 42.99 per cent and 12.32 per cent over 2018-19, respectively. In the current assessment, the coarse grains, pulses, oil seeds and sugarcane have marginally pushed themselves further in the negative region with an expected decline of 14.14 per cent, 14.09 per cent, 53.31 per cent and 11.07 per cent over the last estimate, respectively.

For the year 2019-20, rice production has expected to decline marginally by 8.21 per cent over last year and decline marginally by 3.19 per cent over last estimate. Maize is expected to decline significantly by about 11.86 per cent over last year and 8.97 per cent over last estimate. In the minor cereals, Jowar is expected to improve by 1.07 per cent over last year while Bajra is expected to decline by 1.98 per cent over last year.

Pulses production is projected to drop significantly in Moong by 27.38 per cent over last year and decline marginally by 5.77 per cent over last estimate, in Urad 18.38 per cent over last year and 2.77 per cent over last estimate and also in Tur by 10.47 per cent over last year and 5.54 over last estimate mainly due to crop damaged in Rajasthan, Maharashtra, Karnataka and Madhya Pradesh. Thus for the current year one can expect a significant shortfall in overall kharif pulses availability owing to long spell of unseasonal rainfalls in October and November.

Total oilseeds (Soybean, Groundnut, Castor Seed, Sunflower, Sesame and Niger Seed) production is estimated to be 16218.06 thousand MT, which is 23.78 per cent declined than the last year production 21277.00 thousand MT.  Soybean production is expected to decline significantly by 32.27 per cent over last year and 12.93 per cent over last estimate and Groundnut production is expected decline marginally by 9.57 per cent over last year and 4.31 per cent over last estimate due to excess rains in Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra towards the fag end of monsoon rains. Other Oil Seeds decline by sunflower 30.61 per cent over last year and 22.38 per cent over last estimate and Sesame 21.48 per cent over last year and 10.71 per cent over last estimate.

In the cash crop section, Sugarcane output in India drop significantly by 21.98 per cent over last year and decline 11.07 per cent over last estimate. Cotton is expected to increase marginally by 3.28 per cent over last year owing to favourable growing conditions.