NBHC’s First Rabi Crop Estimates for 2019-20

The northeast monsoon, between October and December, India witnessed a 30 per cent surplus in total rainfall. The nation’s monsoon rainfall during the months of June-September was at 10 per cent above average. Rainfall over the country as a whole during the SW monsoon season (June-September), which is the principal rainy season of the country, was normal (110 per cent of LPA). Further, the downpour continued through the months of October and November, thereby increasing the water table. The 2019 northeast monsoon season (October-December) rainfall over the country as a whole was above normal (129 per cent of LPA). The seasonal rainfall during the northeast monsoon season over the core region of the south peninsula (comprising of 5 subdivisions viz. Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema, Tamil Nadu & Puducherry, South Interior Karnataka and Kerala), was normal (109 per cent of LPA). The total live storage in 123 important reservoirs in different parts of the country as on 6^th February 2020 was 114.821 BCM ( 67 per cent of the live storage capacity at FRL ).The current year's storage is nearly 157 per cent of last year's storage and 146 per cent of the average of last ten years. Availability of good soil moisture across major Rabi producing states has also laid the foundation for laid down a strong platform for good production. Keeping in consideration the large scale post monsoon developments and the sowing reports from various parts of the country, NBHC Pvt. Ltd. has come up with its 1^st Rabi Crop Estimates for 2019-20.

As per our study, the total Rabi Cereals production for the year 2019-20 is expected to increase by 4.52 per cent to 134.23 Million MT from 128.43 million MT in 2018-19. Wheat area is expected increase by 12.03 per cent to 33.44 Million Ha and its production is expected to improve by 9.01 per cent to 111.40 Million MT due to favourable weather conditions, improved soil moisture conditions and incentivised increase in MSP to 1925 per quintal from 1840 per quintal given last year. Rabi Rice acreage is recorded lower by 23.24 per cent at 2.61 million Ha against 3.40 million Ha last year and its production is expected to decrease significantly by 27.96 per cent to 10.30 million MT from 14.29 million MT in last year owing to marginal shift in farmer’s focus to pulses & wheat. Total coarse cereals production is expected to increase by 4.92 per cent to 12.54 million MT in 2019-20 mainly due to increase in production of Jowar (2.43 million MT), maize (8.28 million MT) and barley (1.83 million MT). Jowar acreage is improved significantly by 19.12 per cent while the acreage of maize and barley are expected to show a marginal surge of 6.45 per cent and 6.85 per cent, respectively.

The most affected is the cultivation of pulses, particularly Moong and Urad due to erratic rains and also sought a removal of import duties and caps on peas. The Moong acreage is expected to decline significantly by 26.32 per cent to 0.56 million Ha from 0.76 million Ha in last year and production is expected to decline by 26.38 per cent to 0.38 million MT from 0.51 million MT in last year. Urad acreage is expected to decline by 21.44 per cent to 0.74 million Ha from 0.94 million hectares in last year and production is expected to decreased by 20.17 per cent to 0.56 million MT from 0.70 million MT in last year. Overall, the pulses acreage is expected to increase by 1.86 per cent to 15.92 million Ha from 15.63 million Ha in last year and the production is expected to decline by 2.47 per cent at 15.17 Million MT despite Gram acreage and production is likely to increase by 10.14 per cent (10.64 million Ha) and 7.90 per cent (10.93 million MT) respectively.

However total oilseeds acreage is expected to decline marginally by 0.87 per cent at 7.97 million Ha from 8.04 million Ha in last year and production is expected to decline by 7.39 per cent to 10.17 million MT from 10.98 million MT in last year. Mustard acreage is expected to decline by 0.29 per cent to 6.92 million Ha and its production is expected to decline by 6.92 per cent to 8.69 million MT from 9.34 million MT in last year. Groundnut and Sunflower production is estimated to be lower by 8.87 per cent (1.12 million MT) and 39.24 per cent (0.08 million MT) respectively.